Week 14 is here, and we finally have an unload the FAAB budget option on the wire in Isaac Guerendo.
Don’t think about it. Just spend whatever you have left.
This is also the final week of the fantasy regular season for most leagues. Those already locked into the playoffs can start preparing for their run.
There is not enough room here to really dive into the fantasy playoff schedules, but it is worth noting teams like the Titans, Panthers, and Broncos have great passing schedules from Week 15 to Week 17 and guys available on the wire.
For the running game, the Raiders have a nice run with the Falcons, Jaguars, and Saints as well as an interesting young running back available in most leagues. More on that below.
Finally, this is the final bye week of the season, and it is a doozy.
The Ravens, Texans, Commanders, Broncos, Colts, and Patriots are all out, meaning SEVERAL important fantasy players at each position will not be available this week.
As a reminder, recommended adds are available in at least 60% of ESPN leagues, and the watch list consists of players worth monitoring.
The deep cuts section for running backs and receivers highlights players who are rostered in no more than 5% of ESPN leagues for all you “not in my league” degens.
I will not list recommended FAAB percentages for every player because that decision comes down to too many factors including league size, team weaknesses, and the aggressiveness of the other managers in your league.
That said, I will try to clarify when there is a player I am going big on in FAAB bidding.
Finally, I will not be ranking kickers and defenses because frankly I don’t care about them and want them to disappear from the game.
With those caveats out of the way, let’s get to it.
Best Quarterback Waiver Pickups, Fantasy Football Week 14
- Caleb Williams
- Will Levis
- Cooper Rush
Best Running Back Waiver Pickups, Fantasy Football Week 14
- Isaac Guerendo
- Sincere McCormick
- Tank Bigsby
- Jaleel McLaughlin
- Kendre Miller
Best Wide Receiver Waiver Pickups, Fantasy Football Week 14
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
- Josh Palmer
- Elijah Moore
- Adam Thielen
- Parker Washington
- Sterling Shepard
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Best Tight End Waiver Pickups, Fantasy Football Week 14
- Will Dissly
- Juwan Johnson
- Dawson Knox
- Noah Gray
- Grant Calcaterra
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Best Quarterback Waiver Pickups, Fantasy Football Week 14
1. Caleb Williams – Available in 63% of leagues
This is an awful week for streaming, which is devastating given the guys on bye, so let’s stick with a quarterback who has played better following a change at offensive coordinator. Thomas Brown, who will keep calling the plays even as the interim head coach, has turned around Chicago’s offense, and Williams is the QB3 overall over the last three games. His matchup with the 49ers is not ideal, but they have allowed some rushing production to quarterbacks. Williams has averaged nearly 50 rushing yards per game over his last three.
2. Will Levis – Available in 95.2% of leagues
This is a plug-your-nose option, and I would not push back on anyone going with someone like Jameis Winston and praying for big volume in a bad matchup. Still, the Jaguars have been the best matchup for fantasy quarterbacks this season. They have slowed down Sam Darnold and C.J. Stroud in two of their last three games, but Jared Goff went for 412 yards and 4 touchdowns on just 29 attempts in the other one of those games. Since returning to the starting job, Levis is averaging 8.3 yards per attempt with a 6.1% touchdown rate.
3. Cooper Rush – Available in 96.7% of leagues
We tried Rush last week, and it did not hit. He has an even better matchup this week, though, and is going up against a Bengals offense that should push the Cowboys to throw. Since Week 8, the only quarterbacks to not have a great fantasy game against the Bengals was the Raiders duo of Gardner Minshew and Desmond Ridder. Rush might be on that level, but we are trusting the game script and track record here.
Watch List: I am open to Jameis Winston as a streaming option coming off his 497-yard, 4-touchdown game against the Broncos, but the week before that he threw for 219 yards, albeit in dreadful conditions, against the Steelers. Pittsburgh was just touched up by Joe Burrow, but that was the first time they had allowed 300 passing yards and multiple touchdowns since Week 5…Derek Carr has a decent matchup against the Giants, but we just have not seen the fantasy upside from him since early in the season, and now the Saints have another major injury on offense…Bryce Young has been playing better, but it is tough to get there with him against the Eagles…I can’t in good conscious recommend Aidan O’Connell as a streamer, which is saying something given the names above, but he did throw for 340 yards against the Chiefs and gets a great matchup this week against the Bucs.
Best Running Back Waiver Pickups, Fantasy Football Week 14
1. Isaac Guerendo – Available in 98.7% of leagues
The Monday afternoon news dump of both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason heading to injured reserve made this waiver week pretty easy. Guerendo was the primary back when Mason was forced from the game in both Week 6 and Week 8. In the second half of that Week 8 game, Guerendo had 11 carries and a touchdown compared to 3 carries for Deebo Samuel and 2 for Patrick Taylor. He is the obvious option for the lead job with Mason and McCaffrey gone – even after the 49ers made some additions – and he is worth 100% of remaining FAAB.
2. Sincere McCormick – Available in 99.9% of leagues
Alexander Mattison appeared close to returning last week, and it is possible he will come back and be the starter, but I am taking a shot on McCormick, especially in leagues where I have already qualified for the playoffs. McCormick has averaged 5.7 yards per carry this season. Every other Raiders back has averaged 3.3. He once again saw his snap rate climb in Week 13, and he led the team with 12 carries for 64 yards. He also was officially added to the official roster on Tuesday. McCormick is clearly the best option, and it makes sense for the Raiders to see what they have in him. The Raiders also have a good schedule in the fantasy playoffs, getting the Jaguars and the Saints in Weeks 16 and 17.
3. Tank Bigsby – Available in 67.5% of leagues
Bigsby’s role was that of a backup in his return, playing just 4 fewer snaps than Travis Etienne but seeing just 35% of the running back carries and 1 target, albeit on 4 more routes than Etienne. He did have the one snap in goal-to-go, so maybe that is the pathway to standalone fantasy value, but his usage in his first game back was not promising given the offensive environment. Still, Bigsby is getting touches and is explosive, so there is a place for him on fantasy benches.
4. Jaleel McLaughlin – Available in 84.2% of leagues
The Broncos are on bye this week, so Mclaughlin is just a playoff stash, and we have seen the Broncos go back to Javonte Williams as the starter after big games from Audric Estime in the past. Still, Williams has consistently struggled this season, averaging 3.6 yards per carry with just 8.9% of his carries going for at least 10 yards and 21.8% of his carries resulting in zero or negative yards. McLaughlin and Estime have averaged 4.6 yards per carry with a 13.2% explosive run rate and a 14% negative run rate. The Broncos will hopefully make the switch in the bye week, but much like with McCormick, it is just a hope at this point.
5. Kendre Miller – Available in 94.8% of leagues
Miller can be the stand in for upside handcuffs (list below) this week, but he is also interesting from a standalone value perspective with Taysom Hill out for the season. The Saints have given Alvin Kamara as many touches as they can, so they need someone else to take on work. With Dennis Allen gone, who hated Miller like an ex-spouse, that could be Miller once he is activated. He has averaged 5.3 yards per touch thus far in his career. He is more a handcuff than standalone, but it is also possible he gets more work than we expect.
Watch List: Time for our weekly list of handcuffs. Again, these guys should be filling bench spots where possible. The Cardinals have a nice playoff schedule, which means Trey Benson would be massive if something happened to James Conner…Braelon Allen was on the field more and got 7 touches, but he needs an injury considering the offensive environment. The recent touches for Isaiah Davis also add some intrigue. The Jets do have a nice playoff schedule…Another Aaron Jones fumble opened up more work for Cam Akers, but he is still clearly behind the starter…Roschon Johnson suffered a concussion, so it remains to be seen when he will be back, and the Bears’ schedule is rough the rest of the way…It briefly looked like Blake Corum had made up some ground in the Rams’ backfield, but Kyren Williams was the guy in the second half…Ray Davis got an early touchdown, but 7 of his 12 touches came in the fourth quarter. Still a handcuff, but obviously talented…Kimani Vidal got 36.4% of the running back carries and played 12 snaps to 14 for Gus Edwards and 7 for Hassan Haskins, who lost a fumble. There could be a path here for the rookie…Jaylen Wright fell out of the rotation in Week 13, but he would seemingly still be a better fit for De’Von Achane’s role should something happen to the lead back…Chris Rodriguez Jr. dominated work in the fourth quarter of the blowout win, but Jeremy McNichols was the No. 2 behind Brian Robinson through the first three quarters…Khalil Herbert at least got on the field for 5 snaps, so that is something.
Deep Cuts: It would be interesting to see if Emanuel Wilson or Chris Brooks took over the starting running back job should something happen to Josh Jacobs…It is the same story every week. Kenneth Gainwell is playing more snaps, but I would bet on Will Shipley getting more work if something happened to Saquon Barkley…Najee Harris missing some snaps opened up work for Cordarrelle Patterson, but it was interesting he finished with just 1 fewer touch than Jaylen Warren…Dameon Pierce is just a handcuff, but he would step into what has been a great fantasy spot this season…As mentioned above, Chris Rodriguez Jr. got a lot of work in garbage time, but he could have a role should something happen to Brian Robinson.
Best Wide Receiver Waiver Pickups, Fantasy Football Week 14
1. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine – Available in 80.1% of leagues
I give up. Westbrook-Ikhine led the Titans in targets in Week 13 and has at least a 20% target share in four of his last five games. He has 8 touchdowns over his last 8 games including 2 against the Commanders. He is averaging 16.1 air yards per target and 32.3 yards per reception over the last three games. Unlike Marquez Valdes-Scantling below, NWI is actually getting the targets, and he should be added.
2. Josh Palmer – Available in 89.7% of leagues
The injury to Ladd McConkey could open the door to more targets for Palmer. Although he only got 1 look against the Falcons, he did catch a two-point conversion, and he earned 8 targets the week before against the Ravens. With Quentin Johnston’s recent struggles, Palmer seems like the safer bet to take on a large chunk of that team-leading target share if McConkey misses time.
3. Elijah Moore – Available in 86.6% of leagues
Moore has a tough matchup this week and faces the potential return of Cedric Tillman, but he is second on the team with 48 targets in the five games since Jameis Winston took over as the starter. Winston has averaged 43.6 attempts in those contests with the one down week being a weather-affected game against the Steelers, who the Browns play again this week. Moore has also averaged 11.3 air yards per target and 11.1 yards per catch with Winston at quarterback compared to just 4.5 air yards per target and 5.9 yards per catch with Deshaun Watson. That gives him more per target upside should he lose share to Tillman or the Browns simply throw less in a given week.
4. Adam Thielen – Available in 72.7% of leagues
Thielen is not a full time player because he primarily plays in the slot, and it will be interesting to see what happens to his playing time if Jalen Coker returns as expected this week. He is averaging a target on 21.2% of his routes since returning, though, with 2.36 yards per route run for a passing game that is suddenly working. He is also second on the team with 3 targets into the end zone over that span, catching one last week. David Moore is also worth a look in deeper leagues, but there are some concerns about him you can see in the deep cuts section.
5. Parker Washington – Available in 99.1% of leagues
The dream is back alive. Washington caught 6 of a team-leading 12 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown against the Texans. He ran a route on 91.1% of Jacksonville’s dropbacks coming out of the bye week. I would be more interested in Washington if Trevor Lawrence was running the offense, but he was targeted on 28.1% of his routes with Mac Jones in the game on Sunday.
6. Sterling Shepard – Available in 96% of leagues
Since Mike Evans’ return, Shepard has not been a full time receiver because he works from the slot, but he has earned a target on 28.6% of his routes and is second on the team with 14 targets. He is averaging just 6.4 yards per catch, so there is not a ton of upside per reception, but he can be a factor in deeper PPR leagues in that Chris Godwin role.
7. Marquez Valdes-Scantling – Available in 22.6% of leagues
Even with all the injuries to the New Orleans offense, Valdes-Scantling has 1, 3, 4, and 3 targets since joining the Saints. It just so happens 4 of his 8 catches have gone for touchdowns with just 2 of those touchdowns on passes thrown into the end zone. This is not sustainable, but I have been writing that for weeks, so here we are. Another added element of doubt is the potential return of Bub Means.
Watch List: I am not going to consider Alec Pierce an add headed into his bye week, but he did have a 25% target share without Josh Downs in Week 13, and it seems like Downs could miss more time after the break…Jalen McMillan is running the routes, which is promising, but the target tree is condensed around Mike Evans, Cade Otton, and Sterling Shepard…Brandin Cooks returned to a team-leading 7 targets, which is something to watch the rest of the way…The Cardinals have a great schedule in the fantasy playoffs, and Michael Wilson is a decent bet for 4 to 5 targets most weeks…Romeo Doubs is expected back this week, pushing Dontayvion Wicks back down the pecking order…Tre Tucker took his target 58 yards for a touchdown, but that was his only look in the game. It will be difficult for him to stack targets with Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers healthy…No one is worth adding heading into a bye, but it is worth a Patriots receiver update. Kayshon Boutte got his customary 6 targets while running 100% of the routes, DeMario Douglas finished with 4 targets, Kendrick Bourne got 3 targets, and Ja’Lynn Polk ran 8 routes. Good luck week to week.
Deep Cuts: David Moore has established himself as a full time player over the last two weeks and leads the Panthers in targets over that span. He is worth a look in deep leagues for sure, but I want to see what happens when Jalen Coker returns. Will the Panthers keep rolling out the 29-year-old Moore and 34-year-old Adam Thielen over Coker? That does not make much sense to me, but we will see what happens…KaVontae Turpin only ran 10 routes in Week 13, but he earned a target on 5 of those and gained 53 yards…Time for our Broncos receiver update heading into the bye week. Marvin Mims got loose for a LONG touchdown, but he ran a route on just 41.7% of dropbacks. Devaughn Vele was at 55.6%, and Troy Franklin matched that route rate and led the non-Courtland Sutton group with 5 targets. Even with Josh Reynolds now out of the picture, picking one of those guys each week will be a headache…Mack Hollins is going to catch some touchdowns. It is what it is…Calvin Austin has a touchdown in back-to-back games, but he picked up a concussion.
Best Tight End Waiver Pickups, Fantasy Football Week 14
1. Will Dissly – Available in 67.1% of leagues
Ball up top. Dissly goose egged against the Falcons, crushing my dreams and DFS day, but he still ran a route on 71.4% of the Chargers’ dropbacks. More importantly moving forward, it looks like Ladd McConkey is in real danger of missing some time, an absence that would likely open up more targets for Dissly. The Chiefs have been one of the worst defenses against tight ends and were just smoked by Brock Bowers for 140 yards and a touchdown on 10 catches.
2. Juwan Johnson – Available in 94.8% of leagues
The streaming barrel is thin this week, so taking a shot on Johnson might make some sense in the wake of Taysom Hill’s season-ending injury. Hill was not playing full time at tight end, obviously, but Johnson has a 63.8% route participation rate with Hill off the field including 80% each of the last two games compared to a 50% rate with Hill on the field this season. He has been targeted on 21.7% of his routes in the last two games. Given all the injuries, Johnson could end up a surprisingly large part of the New Orleans passing game.
3. Dawson Knox – Available in 87.8% of leagues
This goes out the window if Dalton Kincaid returns this week, but Knox was up around a 70% route participation rate against the 49ers and will have a decent matchup against the Rams if Kincaid continues to sit.
4. Noah Gray – Available in 92.8% of leagues
Gray did not get into the end zone against the Raiders, but his usage pattern looked right about the same as it was the two weeks before. Over the past three weeks, he has run a route on 57.9% of Kansas City’s dropbacks, and he has been targeted on 19.5% of those routes. His matchup this week against the Chargers is not great, but if you are digging deep, he is an option.
5. Grant Calcaterra – Available in 99.5% of leagues
This one comes with a caveat. Dallas Goedert appears likely to miss more time after sitting out the majority of four games earlier this year. In those four games, Calcaterra earned 16.3% of the targets and had more than 50 yards twice. He also has a great matchup this week against the Panthers. The problem with using him as a streamer is that DeVonta Smith is expected to be back AND the Eagles simply are not throwing the ball. The Eagles are second to last in situation neutral pass rate and 11% under their expected pass rate since the bye. Over that span, they have a 29% dropback rate in the second half. So if you want to play the matchup and the possibility a revamped Panthers offense forces the Eagles to throw, that does make some sense, but it is also possible Jalen Hurts just throws 15 passes to Smith and A.J. Brown before calling it a day.
Watch List: I am not putting him as an add because he is on bye, but if you are looking for a stash for the playoffs, Isaiah Likely has some interesting splits without Rashod Bateman, who suffered a knee injury in Week 13. He has run 47 routes this season without Bateman on the field, 66.2% of Baltimore's dropbacks in that situation. He has been targeted on 29.8% of those, averaging 8.8 yards per target and 2.62 yards per route run…Mike Gesicki showed up with 5 targets against the Steelers, but his route participation was back down to 54.5%. We have a long history of his not really getting targets with Tee Higgins healthy, so I would like to see it another week…It looks like Ja’Tavion Sanders will be back this week, which puts a dent in both Sanders’ and Tommy Tremble’s streamability…Chig Okonkwo’s usage in his 3 for 27 game against the Commanders was much more promising than in his 1-70-1 game against the Texans the week before. He was targeted on 21.4% of his routes and earned 6 targets overall.