The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 3 Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon game.
| Washington | Rank | @ | Buffalo | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Spread | -9 | ||
| 18.3 | Implied Total | 27.3 | ||
| 23 | 16 | Points/Gm | 25.5 | 12 |
| 24.5 | 17 | Points All./Gm | 11.5 | 3 |
| 59 | 24 | Plays/Gm | 71.5 | 3 |
| 71 | 28 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.5 | 17 |
| 5.6 | 17 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.8 | 27 |
| 5.7 | 16 | Def. Yards/Play | 3.7 | 2 |
| 41.53% | 16 | Rush% | 38.46% | 20 |
| 58.47% | 17 | Pass% | 61.54% | 13 |
| 40.14% | 15 | Opp. Rush % | 32.80% | 4 |
| 59.86% | 18 | Opp. Pass % | 67.20% | 29 |
- Through two weeks, the Bills are averaging just 4.8 yards per passing play (30th) after 7.4 yards per passing play in 2020 (third).
- Josh Allen has completed 4-of-17 passes (23.5%) on throws over 15 yards downfield, the lowest rate in the league through two weeks. In 2020, Allen completed 48.5% of those passes, 10th among qualifying passers.
- Washington has allowed opponents to score on 61.1% of their possessions, the highest rate in the league. That mark was 33% in 2020, fifth in the league.
- The Bills have allowed a touchdown on just 1-of-20 offensive possessions by opponents to start the season.
- Defensively, Buffalo is allowing a league-low 3.8 yards per passing play.
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Things have been off for Allen to start the year as his completion rate (56%) and yards per pass attempt (5.3 Y/A) have sagged in both games to open the season. It all has to do with pressure right now. Allen has been pressured on 40.2% of his dropbacks (seventh highest). Under pressure, Allen has completed 11-of-31 passes (35.5%) for 128 yards (4.1 Y/A). Against the blitz through two games, Allen has completed 6-of-18 passes for 65 yards (3.6 Y/A).
The Washington defense has also not gotten off to the hottest of starts relative to expectations as opposing passers have completed 67.1% of their passes (15th), 11.1 yards per completion (16th), and 7.4 yards per pass attempt (17th). They have still held up with a 2.5% touchdown rate (eighth), but Darius Slayton can be thanked for that.
One thing Washington has done is send blitzes and still generated pressure. They have blitzed 36.8% of the time, the third-highest rate in the league through two weeks. They have pressured quarterbacks at the sixth-highest rate (25.3%). If that holds up here and Allen’s struggles versus pressure and the blitz spill into another week, we are set up for another letdown for fantasy.
Allen is still attached to a lofty team total at home, so the objective spot is one we still want to chase Allen’s upside on as a back-end QB1.
Taylor Heinicke: Heinicke was the QB12 (20.0 points) in his first regular-season start with Washington, completing 73.9% of his passes for 336 yards (7.3 Y/A) with a pair of touchdowns last Thursday. Heinicke has now made two starts with Washington and has produced 24.8 points and 20 points for fantasy.
The Bills defense has come out of the gates hot. They have the third-highest pressure rate (33%) and have blitzed at the seventh-highest rate (29.5%). Opposing passers have thrown for 4.9 yards per pass attempt (first) and 8.6 yards per completed pass (second). The Pittsburgh and Miami passing games were not strong outside of their Buffalo matchups, either so necessary gains of salt, but with Heinicke a large road underdog attached to one of the lowest implied totals of the week, I am keeping him in QB2 territory. If he answers again here, then we may have a legit streamer on our hands.
Running Back
Antonio Gibson: After 23 touches for 108 yards in Week 1, Gibson was reduced down to 15 touches for 73 yards in Week 2. Game script put the Washington offense in a number of two-minute and passing situations last Thursday, which still highlighted the one role Gibson doesn’t have in the offense still. Gibson went from running a pass route on 50% of the team dropbacks in Week 1 down to 44% in Week 2 while he had fewer designed calls in the passing game. After being targeted on 38.5% of his routes in Week 1, that rate dropped down to 9.1% last week.
As a large underdog, we could see more of the latter in terms of route rates if the implied script plays out, leaving Gibson as an RB2 option.
J.D. McKissic: Tied directly into everything above, McKissic’s role played into the game script and climate in Week 2. After playing 20 snaps and running 10 pass routes in Week 1, McKissic played 31 snaps and ran 24 pass routes on Thursday night. Taking advantage, he snagged 5-of-6 targets for 83 yards while tacking on a touchdown run in the 2-minute offense late in the first half.
McKissic is tethered to game script and in-game situations to max out his opportunities. The potential climate is here for that once again as a floor-based FLEX in PPR formats.
Bills RBs: With Zack Moss active, Devin Singletary still held a significant edge in playing time with 43 snaps to just 18 for Moss. Singletary has steadily looked sprier all offseason and into the season as he has rushed over 6.0 yards per carry in each of the opening two games, including a 46-yard touchdown run for the first offensive score last week.
The downside with Moss active is that we once again saw that Singletary will concede short-yardage carries to Moss. Moss siphoned three of the four carries between these backs inside of the 10-yard line and the lone carry inside of the five. The Bills also still have shown little interest in targeting their backs as Singletary has just five catches for 17 yards to open the season.
With both backs active, Singletary is a floor-based FLEX in all formats while Moss is a touchdown-dependent dart throw.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs: We have not had the spike weeks from Diggs to open the season through Allen’s struggles, but we have seen the steady floor Diggs has. Diggs now has double-digit PPR points in 22 straight games played, the longest active streak in the league for a non-quarterback.
The volume is still here with target shares of 28.6% and 27.6% in both games to open the season. Once Allen finds his groove, then Diggs will take off. That is still a question here as highlighted above, but we know Diggs still has the floor paired with opportunity. Washington has allowed three top-20 scoring wideouts over their two games.
Terry McLaurin: After just four targets (19.1%) in Week 1, McLaurin was peppered with 14 looks (31.8%) in Week 2, catching 11 for 107 yards and a score. Washington recalibrated their offense in Week 2 to feature McLaurin and get him more mid-range looks. His depth of target was 8.1 yards downfield.
Neither team that faced Buffalo has had success passing whether you want to attribute that opposing quarterback play, offensive line play, or the Bills themselves. Opposing wideouts have registered just 1.2 points and 4.9 yards per target, the lowest rates in the league. McLaurin is no stranger to facing tough matchups and playing with suspect quarterback performances, so it is hard to run away from him as a WR2.
Cole Beasley: After 13 targets (26.5%) in Week 1, Beasley dipped down to just four (13.8%) in Week 2. Washington has been vulnerable in the slot to open the season. In Week 1, Chargers wideouts caught 12 passes for 144 yards from the slot while Sterling Shepard caught five for 65 yards from inside last week against them. Beasley is a floor-based WR3 in PPR formats.
Emmanuel Sanders: Sanders has not popped for fantasy through two weeks (6-100-0), but we have seen the role that he has in this offense as a downfield target. Sanders already has six targets over 15 yards downfield and five over 20 yards. If Allen gets closer to his 2020 efficiency downfield then Sanders is going to run into some crooked weeks when those passes connect. To start the season, Washington has allowed a 58.3% completion rate (26th) on downfield targets. Sanders is a boom-or-bust FLEX.
Tight End
Logan Thomas: Thomas has opened the season with games of 3-30-1 and 5-45-0. He has received 14.3% and 15.9% of the team targets, which is down from his 19.2% target rate a year ago. The good news is that Thomas is still out there a lot. He has been in on 92.1% of the team dropbacks, which is the second-highest rate among tight ends to open the season. Opposing tight ends have caught 7-of-11 targets for 90 yards against Buffalo through two weeks. Thomas remains a back-half TE1 due to his snaps and routes run.
Dawson Knox: Knox has started off with games of 4-41-0 (four targets) and 2-17-1 (three targets). Dating back to last season, Knox has scored a touchdown in six of his past 11 games. The downside is that he has also cleared 50 yards or had more than four receptions in just one of those games. Knox is in a deep bucket of touchdown-dependent TE2 options.
More Week 3 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
CAR at HOU | ATL at NYG | CIN at PIT | WFT at BUF | NO at NE | IND at TEN | BAL at DET | CHI at CLE | LAC at KC | ARI at JAX | MIA at LVR | NYJ at DEN | TB at LAR | SEA at MIN | GB at SF | PHI at DAL