As we push into July and further downhill toward the 2023 fantasy season, we are extending our top-down approach that began with a look at the state of leaguewide production and usage at each skill position for fantasy by looking at team performance and output.
The goal is that by late August we have covered all corners of the fantasy earth from a team, player, position, and game theory stance to accurately calibrate our draft strategy for this upcoming season.
We opened things up with a look at how the league and teams performed on a per-possession basis a year ago.
We then followed that up with a dive into how good and bad teams were at converting yardage into touchdowns and a leaguewide and team-by-team look at red zone production.
We are wrapping up this series with a look at what types of touchdowns the NFL is scoring.
Highlights:
- Passing touchdowns still made up 60.6% of the touchdowns scored in 2022, but the 39.4% rushing touchdown rate was the highest in a season since 2008.
- Of the 17 teams that were above the 2021 rate of passing touchdown reliance, 12 of them had a dip in passing touchdown rate in 2022.
- 10 of the 15 teams that were underweight on passing touchdown reliance in 2021 came back and had a spike in passing touchdown rate last season.
League Offensive Touchdown Splits Since 2010:
| Year | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 2021 | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| 2020 | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| 2019 | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| 2018 | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| 2017 | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| 2016 | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| 2015 | 69.8% | 30.2% |
| 2014 | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| 2013 | 66.2% | 33.8% |
| 2012 | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| 2011 | 65.1% | 34.9% |
| 2010 | 65.3% | 34.7% |
When we opened our look at the league last week, we highlighted that running the ball was on the rise due to how defenses were playing lighter front and emphasizing coverage firsthand. Giving up a handful of rushing yards and making offenses sustain drives as opposed to striking for splash plays in the passing game has taken over as the current defensive meta.
With that in mind, you can see that we have had more and more touchdowns come out of the rushing game as opposed to the passing game. The influx of mobile quarterbacks also plays a role here as well since that fingerprinted just about everything in the current offensive landscape.
Passing touchdowns still made up 60.6% of the touchdowns scored in 2022, but the 39.4% rushing touchdown rate was the highest in a season since 2008 (which was 42.4%). In looking at the sample years in the table, the three highest rates of rushing touchdowns over the past 13 seasons have come in each of the past three years.
Are You Tired of Regression Yet?
Since 2010, 76.5% of the teams that were above the league average in passing touchdown reliance that season came back the following season and had a decrease in passing touchdown share.
Those teams had on average a decline of -11.1% in the share of passing touchdowns with an average loss of 4.8 passing touchdowns the following season. As a cause and effect, 72.7% of those teams came back the following year and scored more rushing touchdowns, with an average spike of 4.9 rushing scores per team.
Looking at the most recent season, that largely held again.
Of the 17 teams that were above the 2021 rate of passing touchdown reliance, 12 of them had a dip in passing touchdown rate in 2022. Teams above the fold in 2021 came back last season and had an average loss of -5.1 passing touchdowns per team. Among the teams that had a decline in passing touchdown reliance, those teams had an average loss of -8.7 passing touchdowns last season.
Nobody was hit harder than the Rams. After 80.4% of their touchdowns in 2021 were via passing, just 51.6% were through the air last season. They had 25 fewer passing touchdowns.
The Buccaneers (-17), Packers, Cowboys, and Chargers (all -12 each), and the Steelers (-11) were among the other teams that were overweight in passing touchdown reliance in 2021 that came back and lost a double-digit amount of passing touchdowns in 2022.
On the other end of the spectrum, 10 of the 15 teams that were underweight on passing touchdown reliance came back and had a spike in passing touchdown rate last season.
The team that benefited from regression the most was the Jaguars. After just 48.0% of their touchdowns in 2021 were via passing, that rate spiked up to 60.9% last season while they added 13 passing touchdowns over their 2021 total.
Among those 15 teams that were overweight on the dependency of running the ball into the end zone, 12 of them had fewer rushing touchdowns last season. The Colts (-14 rushing scores) and the Patriots (-12) were hit the hardest.
With the idea of where regression in touchdown dependency shows up the following season, let’s look at the 2022 team splits and carve out some notes with an eye on the 2023 season.
2022 Team Offensive Touchdown Splits:
| wdt_ID | Team | Off TDs | Pass% | Rush% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 32 | 53.10% | 46.90% |
| 2 | ATL | 34 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 3 | BAL | 33 | 57.60% | 42.40% |
| 4 | BUF | 50 | 70.00% | 30.00% |
| 5 | CAR | 32 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 6 | CHI | 37 | 51.40% | 48.60% |
| 7 | CIN | 49 | 71.40% | 28.60% |
| 8 | CLE | 38 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 9 | DAL | 52 | 53.80% | 46.20% |
| 10 | DEN | 29 | 62.10% | 37.90% |
| 11 | DET | 52 | 55.80% | 44.20% |
| 12 | GB | 39 | 69.20% | 30.80% |
| 13 | HOU | 27 | 74.10% | 25.90% |
| 14 | IND | 25 | 68.00% | 32.00% |
| 15 | JAX | 41 | 61.00% | 39.00% |
| 16 | KC | 59 | 69.50% | 30.50% |
| 17 | LAC | 41 | 63.40% | 36.60% |
| 18 | LAR | 31 | 51.60% | 48.40% |
| 19 | LV | 40 | 70.00% | 30.00% |
| 20 | MIA | 42 | 71.40% | 28.60% |
| 21 | MIN | 48 | 62.50% | 37.50% |
| 22 | NO | 36 | 66.70% | 33.30% |
| 23 | NE | 31 | 61.30% | 38.70% |
| 24 | NYG | 38 | 44.70% | 55.30% |
| 25 | NYJ | 28 | 53.60% | 46.40% |
| 26 | PHI | 57 | 43.90% | 56.10% |
| 27 | PIT | 28 | 42.90% | 57.10% |
| 28 | SEA | 42 | 71.40% | 28.60% |
| 29 | SF | 50 | 60.00% | 40.00% |
Even though the reliance on rushing scores was at new heights since 2008, we still had 12 teams have over two-thirds of their touchdowns coming through the air.
Eight of those teams were at 70% or higher with the Buccaneers pacing the league with 83.9% of their touchdowns coming via passing.
Since 2010, there have been 31 other teams with a passing touchdown rate of 80% or higher. Just two of those teams had a higher passing touchdown rate the following season. Those teams averaged +5.5 more rushing touchdowns the following season with an average loss of -5.1 passing scores.
I don’t know how confident we are in the Tampa Bay touchdown total overall, but they are a strong bet to have more rushing touchdowns and a higher rate of touchdowns come on the ground this season than last.
The Texans, Commanders, Bengals, Dolphins, Seahawks, Bills, and Raiders were the other teams at 70% or higher in the passing game last season.
Since 2010, 83.7% of the teams with a passing touchdown rate reaching that arbitrary rate had a dip the following season with an average loss of -11.6% and -4.4 passing scores. Those teams averaged 4.2 more rushing touchdowns the following year.
At the bottom of the pile, we had three teams score over 50% of their touchdowns on the ground and another four teams have dead-even splits in passing and rushing touchdowns.
Just 42.9% of the Pittsburgh touchdowns came via passing, which was the fifth-lowest rate for any team since 2010. All four of the teams below them had a higher rate of passing touchdowns the following season with an average increase of +22.9%.
You probably did not need much foresight in assuming that Kenny Pickett will not have a 1.8% touchdown rate in 2023 or that Diontae Johnson will fall into the end zone this season at least one time, but it is still good to add some numbers to the fire.
88% of all teams with more than half of their offensive touchdowns coming on the ground have had a higher passing touchdown rate the following season with an average increase of +5.3 passing scores. Those teams also had an average loss of -4.8 rushing scores per season.
The Eagles and Giants were the teams joining the Steelers last season with more than half of their touchdowns coming on the ground.
The Eagles are interesting and a potential consistent outlier given Jalen Hurts‘ usage near the end zone. We covered how historically low their dropback rate near the end zone was last season, but even with just 43.9% of their touchdowns last season coming through the air after 48.8% in 2021, they still increased their passing touchdown total by five.
To add some context to how wild that is, since 2010, just one other team (the 2011 Panthers) had more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns and increased their passing touchdown by more than the Eagles last season. The 2010 Carolina team had just nine passing touchdowns while the 2021 Eagles had 20.
The Falcons, Panthers, Browns, and Titans were the other teams right at 50/50 split.
The sample size is smaller here (nine other teams since 2010), but eight of the teams with a 50/50 split in touchdown dispersal came back the following season and threw more passing touchdowns.
Those teams had a large spike as well, with an average increase of 9.3 passing scores the next season. We anticipate all four of those teams to be run-first by nature again in 2023, but if placing some blind faith in the regression numbers, the pass catchers on these teams could provide more value than assumed at current draft positions.
The Panthers are in a place all to themselves and deserve a special mention. We are all aware of how bad their quarterback has been in recent seasons and the franchise and fanbase are praying that their aggressive move to attain Bryce Young ends that suffering.
Carolina now has not had more passing touchdowns than rushing touchdowns in four consecutive seasons. To put how weird that is into context, no other team has a streak of even three straight seasons since 2010 while just three other teams have had back-to-back seasons failing to have more passing scores than rushing ones.
Wrapping this up with some more arbitrary thresholds to potentially spot some other teams to climb in passing touchdown numbers, 72.9% of all teams to have fewer than 60% of their touchdowns coming through the air have come back with a higher passing touchdown rate the following season. Those teams averaged +5.1 more passing scores the next season with an average loss of -4.2 rushing touchdowns.
The final teams falling into that bucket from a year ago that we can place some stock into throwing more touchdowns (and rushing for fewer) are the Ravens, Lions, Cowboys, Jets, Cardinals, Rams, and Bears.
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