Wide Receiver Stats That Matter for Fantasy Football

We are pushing into August and further downhill towards the 2024 fantasy season.

With most fantasy drafts approaching these final weeks before the season, we have one last series to run this week before laying out the positional draft plans next week.

This week, we will dive into the stats that matter the most for weekly fantasy output and which have the largest rollover year over year.

Wide Receiver Fantasy Related Articles:

• Wide Receiver Tiers
• Wide Receiver Rankings
• Wide Receiver Trends
• Red Zone Points vs Expectations: Wide Receiver

Highest Correlation to Weekly Fantasy Points Scored For Wide Receiver

We are looking at every game played for wide receivers over the past 10 seasons here.

Getting into the teeth of things, the statistic that carries the most weekly weight correlating to per-game scoring is receiving yards in both PPR and half-PPR formats.

Yardage gained has a lot more variance per opportunity (targets or receptions) for wide receivers than a rushing attempt does for the running back position since not all targets are created as equally as handoffs are.

Yardage results through the air are tethered to a depth of target, yards created after the catch, and the volume of those targets. Together, those generate the yardage totals that go into the most important component of receiver scoring.

After yardage, things take shape around the format you are playing.

Receptions are inherently more valuable in full-PPR formats while touchdowns become more important in leagues that do not fully reward receptions.

What is interesting when comparing wide receivers to running backs is that wideouts are far less dependent on touchdown production than running backs are.

That is part of why we have seen the rise in WR-heavy drafting.

This is also a strong factor in why wide receiver scoring has been more stable overall than running back scoring since touchdown production carries so much variance.

Being less reliant on touchdowns decreases your weekly volatility.

That is also valuable through a DFS lens when forced to split hairs between a high-salary running back versus a wide receiver since the running back has to rely on touchdown production more to achieve his ceiling.

In PPR formats, both receptions and targets are a better indicator for fantasy points than touchdowns.

Touchdowns and target opportunities are more tightly packed outside of those formats.

Don't miss out on the best fantasy football coverage in the business

Like the NFL, fantasy football never sleeps.

Best ball season is in full swing, and traditional drafts are right around the corner.

Sharp Football has everything you need to prepare for both in our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, powered by premier fantasy football analyst Rich Hribar.

Save more by bundling the Draft Kit with our in-season fantasy package that features Rich's comprehensive “Worksheet” preview of every game, every week of the NFL season.

Click here for more information about our fantasy coverage!

If you are still in an old-fashioned league that doesn't score receptions, you can extrapolate these gaps further in the direction of targets and touchdowns.

This is not a revelation to many, but it is a great context when combining both elements into the player selection for what you are looking for on your rosters.

This is where you shuffle up your tiers depending on the archetypes of players and your formats.

We have already done that since I focus on how players score points in fantasy for the tiers.

Someone like Diontae Johnson stands out in full-PPR formats versus leagues that do not reward receptions greatly.

Mike Evans looks better in formats that reduce the need for receptions and are weighted by touchdowns.

With what goes into weekly output the most, the next step is uncovering which metrics have the highest rollover year over year.

Year-Over-Year Correlation Categories for WRs (Counting Stats)

Just like we did yesterday with running backs, we are splitting things up between counting stats and efficiency-based metrics.

Wide receivers have several standout areas that provide solid correlation in spilling over yearly.

Nothing has a better signal for being stable than old-fashioned points per game.

I know we are not breaking the wheel here, but a good player is likely to remain a good player while the same can be said for a disappointing one.

The top full-season stats are also points per game.

We want to focus on per-game output over full-season production.

Per-game output takes the top four spots above while also accounting for five of the top six spots.

Games played, however, come in dead last in the table above.

After points per game, there is a clear relationship between targets, receptions, and the yardage created on those opportunities remaining the most static year over year.

All have a higher correlation yearly than routes run per game and season.

Opportunity remains the name of the game.

There are cases to be made in either direction for the offensive environment impacting players who had low points per game, which is why someone such as Garrett Wilson still has a high ADP this offseason.

Wilson was seventh at the position in targets per game last season.

This is one of the reasons why I am still keeping the lights on for Davante Adams, who was fourth in targets per game last season.

He still may have lackluster offensive attachment, but still projects for a high number of targets. Any positive spin on variance and Adams will be undervalued this summer.

Touchdown production has proven to be consistently inconsistent throughout this series.

That holds here with the pass catchers.

Among counting stats, touchdowns per game and season are ahead of only routes run per season and games played at the bottom of the pile.

We looked at several wideouts due for touchdown regression in both directions to the mean a few weeks back.

This is another reason to keep the lights on for Adams.

Garrett Wilson, Chris Godwin, and Calvin Ridley also stand out as high target earners (chase volume) who also finished below expectations in scoring touchdowns.

At the other end, players like Courtland Sutton, Brandon Aiyuk, Jayden Reed, and Tank Dell are a few players to have some trepidation with since they did not have an abundance of targets per game paired with over-producing their touchdown expectations.

Year-Over-Year Correlation Categories for WRs (Efficiency Stats)

Reaching the rate stats, we have a wide gap for what to stock and ignore.

The top rate stat would only rank eighth overall combined with the previous table.

Yards per team pass attempt has long been one of my favorite stats for pass catchers.

George Pickens was eighth in yards per team pass attempt (2.25) last season.

He still needs to avoid the addition of Aiyuk, and not only for volume purposes. Aiyuk was third in that department last season (2.73 yards per team attempt).

After yards per team attempt, it is not surprising to see team target share and target rate per route run hold some water in remaining stable since targets carried such a high correlation in the opening table.

Air yards per target hold some water, but what is important here is that air yards per target for wideouts are much more stable than air yards per pass attempt for quarterbacks.

The depth of a target has more to do with the pass catcher than the quarterback.

Once we clear those, however, things start to nosedive into being something to overly factor in for next season.

Yards per route run could look worse, but still offers a lot of yearly variance.

Beyond that, all efficiency-based metrics such as yards per target, yards per catch, yards after the catch, and touchdown or first down related per opportunity should not be something to overly attach yourself to being stable year over year.

Closing things up, let’s put a bow on this:

• Touchdowns are less important for wide receiver scoring than for running backs.
• Focus on per-game metrics over season-long metrics in yearly stability.
• Games played have the weakest correlation year over year.
• Fantasy points per game have the highest year-over-year stability for wideouts.
• Opportunity is the name of the game. Statistics related to targets carry heavy weight year over year.
• Targets matter more than routes run.
• If looking at rate stats, yards per team pass attempt and team target share are the stickiest metrics.
• Focus on counting stats over rate statistics for yearly stability.
• Efficiency (or lack thereof) per target and reception have the lowest correlation to future output.