Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Tiers, 2023

One remaining obstacle we face in the fantasy community as content providers and consumers is understanding that rankings, projections, tiers, and average draft positions are all different and serve different purposes.

I wrote a primer highlighting the use of player projections combined with rankings and ADP, but there is so much more on the table.

My season-long rankings and projections focus on the probable outcomes for a player based on top-down production on a per-play basis and projected game script.

Player production is based on that team volume. We can tweak volume and efficiency for a range of outcomes per player, but that is the simplest explanation of how the projection sauce is made.

While those projections give us a range of season-long production and have implications for listing players in a linear format (rankings), even when those full-season numbers are accurate, they fail to capture the weekly impact and the pockets of production that are relevant to our weekly game of fantasy football.

Projecting Joe Mixon for 1,255 yards and nine touchdowns on 270 touches (his 2021 totals) paints a nice picture of his season-long outlook, but any gamer who rostered Mixon will also tell you that in no way did he fulfill those season-long numbers in creating a balanced weekly impact. This happens to all but a handful of players during every NFL season.

That is an anecdotal example to make a larger point, but there is a litany of examples that fits the point I am making.

There are very few players at each position that just smash weekly over the course of the fantasy season, and we are hopeful to be in on the remainder of the players when they strike the hottest.

That is where player tiers come in.

A lot of player tiers are just rankings chopped up into sections.

While the rankings are more focused on a probable tally of season-long output for a week-to-week game, I prefer to structure my tiers based on how similarly players accrue their fantasy points and by the archetypes of players.

By doing this, it allows me to notice actionable gaps in player pricing per tier which in turn allows for arbitrage in fantasy drafts.

It also highlights some longer-odds players who have more potential than originally perceived.

Arbitrage in fantasy football is driven strongest by how production is accrued, and the order of those players (rankings) is driven by the opportunities (on a player and team level) that each player receives.

Our projections are inherently going to be wrong on those projected opportunities often. Team situations are influenced by a plethora of things. The game script, injuries to the player himself, injuries to surrounding teammates, ineffective play, player breakouts, and so on. That is just the game.

Understanding how a player is used allows us to find prospects who could benefit from that variance. If we are wrong on the opportunity projection, then a lower-tiered player could be an arbitrage opportunity.

As discussed with the running back position, arbitrage and understanding player archetypes becomes even more important at wide receiver due to the different draft approaches used by gamers.

An average fantasy roster is going to house more wide receivers than any other position due to starting requirements and necessary depth for bye weeks, injuries, and busts.

Whether you are a WR-Heavy, Zero-RB drafter, or going in a different direction, each team build accentuates a specific type of player for those builds.

Linear player rankings also start serving the position injustice at a certain point.

The margins at the wide receiver position are far tighter earlier inside of the player ranks compared to other positions.

You may see someone ranked as the WR14 and another wideout as the WR24 and view that as a large gap due to a linear list, but the difference between those options is far tighter than that appearance.

This becomes increasingly true the deeper you dive into the position. By the time you are looking at wideouts in the WR40+ range, they start to bleed together.

While there is not a direct overlap to the individual player rankings, the order of these tiers is how I prioritize drafting the positions from an archetypical stance.

While that can may be confusing for a player ranked highly on a linear list versus a specific tier he is in, I will do my best to incorporate detailed thoughts regarding draft capital in those events throughout the player breakdowns.

One final bit of housekeeping, I will be updating and adding analysis to these tiers all summer long.

• Quarterback Fantasy Football Tiers
• Running Back Fantasy Football Tiers
• Tight End Fantasy Football Tiers

This premium article is part of the Sharp Fantasy Football Draft Kit, one of the best resources to get you prepared for the 2023 fantasy football season.

• Tier 1
• Tier 2
• Tier 3
• Tier 4
• Tier 5
• Tier 6
• Tier 7
• Tier 8
• Tier 9
• Tier 10
• Tier 11
• Tier 12

Tier 1 Fantasy Football WRs:

• Justin Jefferson
• Ja’Marr Chase

Our opening tier of wideouts is the same as our opening tier in Dynasty.

I do believe that more wideouts are drawing live odds to be the WR1 overall this season than just these two, but when looking at the position through the lens of player usage and where these two are on the age spectrum, they are the best bets to make at the front of the position.

Justin Jefferson has opened his career as the WR6, WR4, and WR1 in overall scoring and the WR9, WR4, and WR2 in per-game scoring.

No player has ever had more receptions (324) or receiving yards (4,825 yards) than Jefferson has through three seasons in the league.

Jefferson led the NFL in catches (128) and receiving yards (1,809) in 2022, tacking on nine total touchdowns.

He accounted for 28.6% of the Minnesota team receptions (fourth among wide receivers) and 37.6% of the receiving yardage (first).

Jefferson had seven games last season with 30 or more PPR points. The next closest wide receiver had five.

In his first season with Kevin O’Connell, Jefferson did not receive the full “Cooper Kupp Role” whispered in the summer as he played in the slot for just 23.3% of his snaps, but Jefferson did run a career-high 207 routes in the slot, where he led the NFL in yards per route run (3.43).

Jefferson took off when the Vikings acquired T.J. Hockenson.

Adding a shallow-to-intermediate target in Hockenson freed Jefferson up in the system. Check out his usage splits per TruMedia and the change in the quality of targets after Minnesota added Hockenson:

It also did not hurt Jefferson that the Minnesota offensive line and defense completely fell apart in the second half of the season, which created some unique game environments.

Jefferson led the NFL with 687 routes run.

The good news is Minnesota still has questions defensively, and we still plan on them aggressively attacking teams through the air. Minnesota was sixth in passing rate over expectation in O’Connell’s first season with the team.

Ja’Marr Chase has opened his career as the WR5 and the WR4 in per-game scoring.

Chase got out of the blocks slowly in his second season, opening the year with just one week higher than the WR29 through five games.

Then he started to tap into his upside, averaging 23.7 PPR points per game over his final seven games of the regular season.

Over that span, Chase paced the position twice in weekly scoring and accounted for four top-five scoring weeks during that run.

Whereas he finished higher than WR29 just once over his opening five games, he finished lower than WR17 just once over his final seven games with a low week of WR27.

Interestingly enough, many of Chase’s efficiency stats dipped compared to his rookie season since the Bengals were forced to pull in their vertical passing game from the 2021 season and recalibrate to how teams were defending them in 2022.

But while Chase’s efficiency declined in his second season, the Bengals used him as a full-field wide receiver more than his rookie year, when he largely operated as a splash-play playmaker.

This is almost the inverse of what we just discussed with Jefferson.

Chase received fewer targets downfield but was targeted more heavily in the offense at all other levels.

As a byproduct, Chase received 11.2 targets per game compared to 7.5 per game as a rookie.

We are looking for more of a marriage of Chase’s usage from his rookie season and last year, but throwing double-digit targets per game at a player as talented as Chase leaves a runway for a massive fantasy ceiling.

Tier 2 Fantasy Football WRs:

• Tyreek Hill
• Stefon Diggs
• Davante Adams
• A.J. Brown
• CeeDee Lamb
• Cooper Kupp

The secondary tier is filled with the front-end alpha wide receivers that I believe can compete to lead the position in overall scoring for the season.

Tyreek Hill has been a WR1 in per-game scoring in each of the past six seasons, finishing in the top six in per-game output in five of those years.

That includes being the WR3 per game a year ago in his first season with the Dolphins when he set career-highs in targets (170), receptions (119), and receiving yardage (1,710) to go along with seven touchdowns.

Miami aggressively pursued Hill when he was available last offseason, and Mike McDaniel clearly understood the assignment and had a vision for deploying Hill.

Hill accounted for 32.4% of the Miami receptions and 35.9% of the receiving yards, both the highest rates of his career in a season.

He had one of the greatest wide receiver seasons of all time, and it kind of went overlooked in that capacity.

Hill averaged a league-high 3.08 yards per route run running 578 routes. The only seasons that were better over the past decade from a wide receiver with over 500 routes per TruMedia have been Julio Jones in 2016 (3.23 yards per route) and Cooper Kupp in 2021 (3.12 YRR).

Hill was targeted on a career-high 32.0% of his routes and averaged 2.93 yards per team pass attempt, both of which paced all wide receivers.

Hill was also the only player in the NFL last season to be targeted on over 30.0% of his routes versus both zone coverage (32.5%) and man coverage (34.0%).

The added part of how wildly underrated Hill’s season was factoring in all of the time that Tua Tagovailoa missed and the impact that Skylar Thompson had when he was under center.

Tyreek Hill Splits Per Miami QB:

On top of that, Hill posted a 4.1% touchdown rate (the lowest of his career), which held him back from punching up with Justin Jefferson when it came to fantasy points.

With an improved touchdown rate and Tua hopefully playing a full season in 2023, Hill can threaten that overall WR1 spot since Miami has not done much to alter its expected approach this season.

Stefon Diggs has been the WR3, WR10, and WR5 in scoring per game since joining the Bills.

He is just one of two players (Davante Adams being the other) to have 100 or more receptions in each of the past three years.

In 2022, Diggs was the Buffalo passing game. He accounted for 27.9% of the Buffalo targets (seventh among wide receivers), 29.9% of the receptions (third), and 33.3% of the receiving yards (sixth).

Josh Allen and Diggs are the most expensive stacking option on the board, but Buffalo has yet to add a significant target threat this offseason to push Diggs off of seeing a robust target share.

Davante Adams continued to perform at the top of his position in his first season with the Raiders.

Adams received a career-high 180 targets, catching 100 passes for 1,516 yards and leading the NFL in touchdown receptions (14) for the second time in three seasons.

Adams was third among all wide receivers in target rate per route run (29.1%), first in overall team target share (32.3%), and seventh in yards per route run (2.45).

Adams did have his lowest catch rate (55.6%) since 2015 due to increased usage downfield, which we should see recoil due to where Jimmy Garoppolo’s strengths are.

20.0% of Adams’ targets in 2022 were deep targets, a new career high.

As a byproduct, his catch rate dipped with more target volume on looks with a lower success rate, but he also averaged 15.2 yards per catch, the highest mark of his career. His previous high was 13.3 yards per catch in 2016.

He had 10 touchdown receptions from 25 yards out or further, the most in a season by a player in the 2000s.

Where Adams struggled in 2022 was where Derek Carr struggled.

Adams accounted for 40.9% of the Las Vegas intermediate targets last season, but he and Carr connected on just 44.4% (20-of-45) of those. 17.8% of the intermediate targets that Adams had were deemed as inaccurate passes per TruMedia, which was the highest rate among all players with as many overall targets.

With Garoppolo in 2023, we should see the yards per reception for Adams come down, but his catch rate and efficiency per target revert to career norms.

Where Carr struggled in 2022 in McDaniels’ system is where Garoppolo made his way with Kyle Shanahan.

Carr was 27th in the NFL last season in completion rate on those intermediate throws (50.0%) and 27th in success rate (51.0%). Garoppolo was fifth in completion rate (65.8%) and sixth in success rate (62.5%) on attempts to the intermediate areas of the field.

But inside of the red zone, Adams converted just 18.2% (4-of-22) of his red zone targets for scores after a career rate of 35.0%.

Adams converted 33.3% of his targets inside of the 10-yard line after a career rate of 53.7% and 37.5% of his red zone targets after a career rate of 44.2%.

If overly concerned about the transition to Garoppolo, remember that Adams also had a 7-153-2 game with Jarrett Stidham last season against arguably the best defense in the league last year in San Francisco.

A.J. Brown was the WR6 in overall scoring and the WR8 in per-game output over his first season with the Eagles.

Brown received a career-high 145 targets, setting career marks in receptions (88) and yardage (1,496) while matching his best season with 11 touchdowns.

Brown averaged a career-high 5.2 catches per game while averaging 3.39 yards per route run against man coverage, which was fourth in the league.

We have touched on this in each of the quarterbacks and tight end tiers, but there is still a lot more meat on the bone for the Philadelphia passing game in 2023 based on the likelihood they are challenged more this upcoming season to throw in the second of games.

Brown was the second-highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy in the first half of games and then the WR14 in the second half. He caught just 16 passes in the fourth quarter all season long and zero touchdowns.

CeeDee Lamb had a true breakout in 2022 with 107 catches for 1,359 yards and nine touchdowns, all highs over his first three seasons in the league.

He closed the year as the WR7 in points per game and was seventh in target rate per route run (27.4%).

Lamb destroyed defenses from the slot, where he led all wideouts in receiving yards (867). Chris Godwin was the only receiver who had more receptions from the slot (67) than Lamb’s 63.

But make no mistake. Lamb is still a full-field alpha despite his gaudy slot production.

He was also top 15 in yards per route run outside, where he still lined up 46.3% of the time.

Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Chris Olave were the only other wideouts in the top-15 in yards per route run both in the slot and lined up outside.

Through all of the issues that the Rams had, Cooper Kupp was still productive before missing the final eight games of the season due to an ankle injury.

Through the first nine weeks, Kupp was second in the NFL in targets (93), second in receptions (72), fourth in receiving yards (813), and third in touchdowns (six) among all wide receivers.

Kupp was leading the league with 33.2% of the team targets over that span.

That was even with expected regression coming off of his blistering 2021 season. Kupp’s yards per catch went from 13.4 yards down to 10.8 from the season prior, and his 8.3 yards per target was the second-lowest rate of his career.

The Rams also used Kupp outside more than ever. He played a career-high 46.9% of his snaps lined up out wide, which of course coincided with a career-low 51.0% slot rate.

Kupp did not miss a beat playing more on the outside, averaging 2.30 yards per route run outside compared to 2.48 yards per route run inside.

He just turned 30 earlier this month, and the Rams still have a litany of question marks. Kupp himself suffered a setback with a hamstring injury in training camp, which is always a red flag and potential risk of re-injury. Our worst fears came true on the last day of August came true with Sean McVay saying that Kupp had a setback in his recovery four weeks later.

Hopefully, this is not a situation similar to what we went through with Keenan Allen a year ago, but it makes Kupp a tougher click when there are other wide receivers surrounding his ADP that are on the front of their career arcs.

Tier 3 Fantasy Football WRs:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Garrett Wilson
• Jaylen Waddle
• Chris Olave
• DeVonta Smith

The third-tier wideouts are more inexperienced and have a smaller sample of elite production than the previous tier but are the premier young wideouts set up to potentially make a jump and reel off multiple WR1 seasons over their careers.

Building off the strong second-half break out of his rookie season in 2021, Amon-St. Brown closed his second season as the WR11 in points per game, catching 106 passes for 1,161 yards and six touchdowns.

St. Brown was second behind only Tyreek Hill in target rate per route run (30.3%) among wideouts while he accounted for 33.3% of his team targets when he was on the field, which also only trailed Hill (36.2%).

Detroit still has little to prevent this passing game from completely running through St. Brown again with Jameson Williams set back with a six-game suspension to open the season. St. Brown’s strongest immediate target competition is rookies Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta, who aren’t even wide receivers.

St. Brown was a bit unlucky as well last season, getting tackled on the 1-yard line on three of his touches and another on the 2-yard line, setting up scores for other players.

The only minor bugaboo for St. Brown is that he is more volume-dependent than the other wideouts we have touched on so far and even more so than the options in this tier. In full-PPR formats, he is a much stronger option.

St. Brown’s 6.5 air yards per target ranked 130th among wideouts while just 4.1% of his targets were deep targets, a rate only ahead of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Richie James among 140 wide receivers to run 100 or more pass routes.

Garrett Wilson led all rookies with 1,103 receiving yards and won the Rookie of the Year award.

What is impressive about Wilson’s season is that 16.3% of his targets were deemed inaccurate by the quarterback, which was the fourth-highest rate among all NFL wide receivers to have 100 or more targets in 2022.

18.8% of his 51 targets from Zach Wilson were deemed uncatchable while he also saw another 50 targets from Joe Flacco, 41 from Mike White, and five from Chris Streveler. Aaron Rodgers was 15th in on-target accuracy targeting wide receivers in 2022 while Wilson was 32nd.

With the Jets adding Allen Lazard and shipping Elijah Moore this offseason, Wilson has an opportunity to move inside more in his second season, especially when the Jets go to three-WR sets.

As a rookie, Wilson had a ton of success playing inside, which accounted for 33.5% of his snaps. He averaged 2.09 yards per route from the slot.

He also wrecked man coverage right out of the box. Against man coverage, Wilson was targeted on 31.2% of his routes while averaging 2.41 yards per route run.

Against zone, Wilson was targeted on just 21.0% of his routes with 1.72 yards per route run. Rodgers had just an 8.2% inaccurate throw rate against zone coverage last season while Wilson was at 17.1%.

The more we uncover about Wilson, the more we find out about how special his rookie season was in the context of his environment.

Johnson was the only wide receiver below Wilson in the point differential in the red zone.

Wilson had 19 red zone targets, but 31.6% of them were deemed inaccurate by the quarterback per TruMedia. Only Marquise Brown (40.0%), and Drake London (37.5%) had higher rates of inaccurate targets in the red zone.

Wilson had 11 end zone targets in the red zone (sixth among all wide receivers) but just two went for touchdowns as 36.4% of those targets were deemed inaccurate through the quarterback. The league rate was 18.8%.

The addition of Aaron Rodgers is already being priced into Wilson this summer, but there are plenty of indicators that he is a special talent to warrant his spike in cost.

After a rookie season in which Jaylen Waddle was used as a low-leverage puddle jumper, Mike McDaniel and the Miami offense showcased the full-field ability Waddle displayed at Alabama.

Those newfound downfield opportunities allowed Waddle to raise his 9.8 yards per catch as a rookie up to a league-leading 18.1 yards per catch in 2022.

Waddle also played through several injuries and, like Tyreek Hill, was greatly impacted by the availability of Tua Tagovailoa.

Outside of maybe Tee Higgins, Waddle also has arguably the largest contingency value at the position should his team’s WR1 miss any action.

With injuries all over the place, Chris Olave was thrust into a lead receiving role with the Saints as a rookie.

Olave was excellent in this rookie season, catching 72-of-119 targets for 1,042 yards and four touchdowns.

Among all wide receivers to run 100 or more pass routes in 2022, Olave ranked sixth in targets per route run (27.7%) and eighth in yards per route run (2.43).

If fleshing out his sample among rookie wideouts to play as much as he did, Olave’s 2.43 yards route run were only bested by Odell Beckham (2.76), A.J. Brown (2.71), Justin Jefferson (2.68), and Ja’Marr Chase (2.52) among rookie wide receivers over the past decade to run at least 300 routes in their first season.

Olave was good in just about every department as a rookie.

He was 11th among wideouts in yards per route from the slot (2.57) and 12th when outside (2.35).

Olave did cool down a bit as the season went on, notching just two weeks as a top-20 scorer over his final nine games. He topped 71 yards in just one of those games with two touchdowns.

This is where I have some reservations with Olave as my WR1 in drafts versus grabbing him as my second wideout or later.

The Saints ran the fewest plays in the NFL Weeks 8-18 last season and ranked 27th in dropback rate over that span. Olave ranked 64th among all wide receivers over that span in routes run while running 30 or more pass routes just once over those nine games.

The Saints have one of the easiest projected schedules this season.

If New Orleans is able to control games, can Olave compete with his peers from a target-ceiling stance?

We are looking for another step forward and banking on his comparables and full-field production as a rookie, but the price has been rising all summer long.

Earlier with Davante Adams, we did highlight some of the intermediate struggles Derek Carr had a year ago. We may get priced out, but the Saints do have our No. 2 easiest projected passing schedule to lessen some of the stings of paying top dollar.

DeVonta Smith built on a positive rookie season in 2021 (64-916-5) and turned in 95 catches for 1,196 yards, and seven touchdowns in 2022.

After a modest opening to the season, Smith caught fire over the back half of the year.

Through Week 9, Smith was the WR30 in overall scoring and WR33 in expected points.

From Week 10 through the close of the regular season, he was then the WR5 overall and WR6 in expected points.

Over that span, Smith was tied for fourth among all wide receivers in targets, was sixth in receptions, and sixth in receiving yards.

From Week 9 through the Super Bowl, Smith out-targeted A.J. Brown (107-to-104) while catching 10 more passes (although Brown had 10 more receiving yards and one more touchdown over that span).

As was the case with everyone on the Eagles, Smith can still find more production if Philadelphia is challenged more this season.

Smith was the WR7 in first-half fantasy scoring (57-788-3) and the WR24 in scoring after halftime (38-404-4). Smith had just 12 receptions and 19 targets in the fourth quarter across 17 games last season.

I also would rank Smith third among wideouts in terms of overall contingency value behind Jaylen Waddle and Tee Higgins should anything happen to A.J. Brown in the season.

Tier 4 Fantasy Football WRs:

• Calvin Ridley
• Tee Higgins
• DK Metcalf
• Amari Cooper
• Deebo Samuel
• Christian Watson

We are hitting another tier jump at the position as these wideouts can flirt with season-long WR1 production, but these options are more week-to-week WR2 plays. There is just enough volatility to keep us in check, but the ceiling potential every week is high.

Tee Higgins has gotten better for fantasy in each of his three seasons in the league, closing as the WR28, WR24, and WR19 in overall points to open his career. Last season he did take a step back in per-game output, however, dropping from WR13 in 2021 down to WR20 in that department.

He appeared in 16 games but had three weeks where he played just 37 combined snaps, which played a role in that per-game output diminishing.

Higgins still managed 74 catches for 1,029 yards and caught a career-high seven touchdowns. He also carries some volatility as the Bengals leaned on Ja’Marr Chase more than during his rookie season.

With Chase transitioning from a deep threat as a rookie to soaking up targets underneath last season, Higgins took a significant hit in opportunity share through the air playing with Chase in the lineup.

Higgins is still capable of big games with Chase and has that built-in contingency value should Chase miss any more time, but I am often looking for more weekly consistency where Higgins is selected in drafts, especially if Higgins is my first or second wide receiver on the roster.

As my third wideout in WR-heavy opens, there is much more comfort.

DK Metcalf has not given us that full season that we believe still exists, but his 2022 usage kind of flew under the radar a bit.

Metcalf set career highs in targets (141) and catches (90) last season as he was used as a total receiver and not just a vertical playmaker.

Metcalf received more volume and had more intermediate field usage, which aided a career-high 8.3 targets per game.

The downside is that we saw his yards after the catch take a hit despite getting more friendly targets to generate them.

Metcalf also had a career-low 4.3% touchdown rate after a career rate of 8.1% entering last season.

I know people get sick of the word regression in the fantasy football space, but Metcalf’s 2022 season is another example of how swiftly and wildly the regression pendulum can swing.

In 2021, Metcalf was the top receiver in points scored over expectations in the red zone (+36.6) and then was 76th last season (-16.6).

Metcalf was second among all wideouts in expected points scored in the red zone but was the WR10 actual points scored.

Only Travis Kelce (30) and Justin Jefferson (28) had more red zone targets than Metcalf’s 27, but just five of them were touchdowns (18.5%) after a career conversion of rate of 34.6%.

Metcalf converted just 30% (3-of-10) of his targets inside of the 10-yard line after a previous rate of 42.1%.

Even more unlucky, Metcalf led the NFL with 22 end zone targets in the red zone. The next closest player had 14. But just five were scores (22.7%) after posting conversion rates of 33.3%, 42.9%, and 46.7% on his end zone targets before last season.

We do not yet know the impact that Jaxon Smith-Njigba will have on Metcalf’s new usage underneath and at the intermediate levels, but if he can roll over that usage with expected touchdown regression, Metcalf could end up undervalued at his cost since he would have more weekly consistency.

The Jaguars added Calvin Ridley at the trade deadline last season.

Ridley was suspended for the entire 2022 season due to violating the league’s gambling policy. This was coming off a tumultuous 2021 season in which Ridley averaged just 9.1 yards per catch and 5.4 yards per target, which were by far career-low marks.

Ridley dealt with a foot injury and noted his mental health was not where it needed to be over that span and set football aside for the remainder of that 2021 season.

We now have not seen Ridley play high-level football for two years and he will turn 29 during the season.

While there is a risk that Ridley never regains his early-career production, there is an immediate upside outcome for a wideout that was the WR19 and WR4 in points per game over the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

Amari Cooper was one of the most underrated pickups of the 2022 offseason, especially after the wave of wide receiver contracts doled out after his acquisition.

Cooper caught 78 passes for 1,160 yards and a career-high nine touchdowns. He matched a career-high with 132 targets on the season while his 14.9 yards per reception were the second-best mark of his career.

Cooper accounted for 26.0% of the Cleveland targets (11th among wide receivers) and averaged 2.08 yards per route run (WR17).

Despite the strong campaign overall, Cooper did once again keep up his catawampus home/away splits, which have followed his career wherever he has been. He was eighth in the NFL in receiving yardage and ninth in catches at home compared to 39th in catches and 21st in yardage on the road.

The expected efficiency regression came for Deebo Samuel last season as his yards per catch fell from a league-leading 18.2 yards down to 11.3 while the long rushing touchdowns from 2021 dried up in 2022.

He went from the WR3 in points per game in 2021 down to WR29 last season. Samuel has yet to average 5.0 catches per game in any NFL season.

Samuel was still the WR14 in target rate per route (25.1%), but his 4.3 air yards per target were the lowest among all wide receivers with 35 or more targets.

Just 5.3% of his targets were deep targets (129th) after a 12.4% rate in 2021.

Samuel still did lead all wideouts with 42 rushing attempts if you are looking for unique usage at the position, but his 2021 output still sticks out as an outlier while his usage and efficiency surrounding that season have symmetry.

If investing in Samuel at cost, we want Brock Purdy to start. When both Purdy and Samuel were on the field, Samuel had a gaudy 28.1% of the team targets.

Christian Watson showcased his big-play ability as a rookie to close the season.

After just 121 total snaps and 14 targets through Week 9, Watson finally got healthy and received an opportunity to deliver as a playmaker.

From Week 10 on, he then caught 31-of-51 targets for 523 yards and seven touchdowns (with another rushing touchdown).

Over that span, Watson was targeted on 25.6% of his routes (12th).

He did run hot on touchdown output as he was the WR9 in fantasy scoring over that stretch while the WR20 in expected points. Over those eight games, Watson still had four or fewer receptions in six of them.

Due to the uncertainty of Jordan Love, Watson can be a massive value or miss in this area, but he is a strong bet to lead the Packers in target opportunity and we know he has the physical profile to bet on.

 

Tier 5 Fantasy Football WRs:

• Keenan Allen
• Chris Godwin
• Christian Kirk
• Diontae Johnson
• DeAndre Hopkins

The next two tiers are split up with players that have ceiling potential but achieve their results differently. You can flip the preference of the tiers based on roster builds and settings.

This opening tier has more reliable, lower depth of target options that are going to get a larger boost in full-PPR formats than leagues that center around splash plays and touchdowns.

Keenan Allen missed seven full regular season games and had two other games in which he only played 33% and 32% of the snaps due to ongoing hamstring issues.

Despite the missed time, when Allen did find the field fully healthy he was just as good as ever.

From Week 12 to Week 19, Allen was third among all wide receivers in targets (75), third in receptions (55), and sixth in receiving yards (581) to go along with four touchdowns.

His age (31 this past April) and injury history make Allen a better WR2 on your roster than a lead option, but when on the field he was still as good as always.

Chris Godwin set career highs in targets (142) and receptions (104) last season, but his performance was largely marred by returning early from ACL surgery and then suffering a hamstring injury in the season opener.

As a byproduct, Godwin averaged a career-low 9.8 yards per reception. His 5.5 air yards per target and 1.74 yards per route run were career lows by a wide margin.

A fully healthy offseason should have some added juice for Godwin, but transitioning from Tom Brady to a potential combination of Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask can impact volume and efficiency.

Over the past two seasons, the Buccaneers have led the NFL in passing attempts. Only five teams have ever thrown the ball 700 or more times in a season. Two of them are the Buccaneers from the previous two seasons.

The Buccaneers ran more collective pass routes than any team in the league last season. They ran 144 more routes than the next closest team and 1,678 more collective routes than the No. 32 team in the league.

With Brady retiring, this Tampa Bay offensive outlook is going to dramatically change, meaning we will need more efficiency from Godwin.

In 2022 with the Panthers and Rams, Mayfield was 31st among 33 qualifying passers in expected points added per dropback (-0.16), 30th in success rate (35.6%), and 29th in yards per pass attempt (6.5).

If looking for a silver lining, at least Mayfield will be throwing to multiple viable wide receivers when all that he had in 2022 was D.J. Moore for his stint with the Panthers before taking over a Los Angeles offense down Cooper Kupp.

Jacksonville caught a significant amount of shade when they signed Christian Kirk last offseason for the salary they paid, but Kirk rewarded their faith and delivered on the field in 2022 to warrant his contract.

Kirk set career highs in targets (133), receptions (84), receiving yards (1,108), and touchdowns (eight) in 2022. His 13.2 yards per catch were his highest since his rookie season.

For fantasy, he was the WR12 in overall scoring and the WR19 in per-game scoring.

While the breakout made Kirk a strong value last season, his underlying usage suggests that there is room for him to be overvalued this season.

Kirk was targeted on 21.5% of his routes (36th among all wideouts with 100 or more routes run) with 1.79 yards per route run (32nd).

He was a top-30 scorer in three of his final seven games as Zay Jones came on to close the season, and now the Jaguars will have Calvin Ridley as a potential target threat.

Diontae Johnson is one of the more interesting WR1 options in the NFL.

Johnson signed a three-year extension last summer and went out and set an NFL record by having the most targets in a season (147) without a touchdown reception.

Despite the lack of trips to the end zone, Johnson still ranked first among all wide receivers in ESPN’s rankings in the ability to get open.

Johnson is going to reach the end zone this season and as a byproduct is a good bet to finish higher than a year ago.

The only question is how much true upside do we have here paired with Kenny Pickett?

Since entering the league in 2019, only seven wide receivers have had more receptions than Johnson.
But out of the 96 wideouts to catch 100 or more passes over that span (Johnson has 356 career catches including the postseason), Johnson ranks 81st in yards per reception (10.7).

Of the 17 wideouts to catch 300 or more passes over that stretch, Johnson is last in yards per catch.

DeAndre Hopkins is one of those players whom the market just seems out on at this stage after back-to-back seasons with injuries and a suspension.

While Hopkins may not be the early-career producer he was, he still was a target earner last season and a tangible fantasy option.

When on the field, Hopkins averaged 7.1 catches for 79.7 yards per game after 4.2 catches for 57.2 yards per game in 2021.

From Week 7 to Week 16 while active, Hopkins was the WR7 in overall scoring and the WR4 in expected points.

Hopkins turns 31 this June and his move to the Titans was a bottom-rung outcome for his potential landing spots after being released in Arizona.

Hopkins will still command a high target share, but with the Titans still projecting to have a low-volume passing total paired with the potential that Will Levis makes starts this season gives him a scary floor paired with a limited ceiling.

Tier 6 Fantasy Football WRs:

• Terry McLaurin
• Drake London
• D.J. Moore
• Tyler Lockett
• Mike Williams
• Brandin Cooks
• Mike Evans
• Marquise Brown
• Brandon Aiyuk
• Jerry Jeudy

This tier has more overall ceiling potential than the majority of the previous tier, but this group also has a lot more variance and floor potential as well.

Through four years in the league, Terry McLaurin has been the WR30, WR20, WR32, and WR24 in points per game.

McLaurin just has not been able to get over the hump due to quarterback play, something that is questionable once again heading into 2023.

McLaurin was limited to just three top-12 scoring weeks and seven top-24 scoring weeks in 2022.

Most of those came through sheer volume when Taylor Heinicke was starting. With Heinicke under center, McLaurin had 29.2% of the team targets and was targeted on 26.3% of his routes.

With Heinicke off the field, McLaurin received 17.0% of the team targets with a target on 15.8% of his routes.

A turf toe injury could have McLaurin out or be limited to open the season.

Atlanta selected Drake London eighth overall in last year’s draft.

Although London’s counting stats (72-866-4) were not as lofty as other rookie wideouts, his efficiency and production within the parameters of his offensive environment were rock solid.

London was targeted on 28.2% of his routes run as a rookie, which ranked fifth in the league among all wide receivers. He accounted for 29.3% of the Atlanta team targets (third among wideouts).

London’s 2.09 yards per route run was 16th among all NFL wideouts last season and trailed only Chris Olave among rookie wide receivers.

London’s yards per route run as a rookie ranked seventh among all rookie wide receivers to run over 300 pass routes over the past decade.

The names above him are Odell Beckham, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Olave, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. The immediate names below him are Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, and Cooper Kupp.

Good company to keep.

The questions with London center around the Atlanta scheme and potential volume.

They were 31st in the league in pass attempts. Atlanta threw the ball -13.0% below expectation on all downs (31st in the league) with a rate of -18.0% on 1st and 10 situations (32nd).

While London’s efficiency places him in good company, nothing Atlanta has done this offseason has screamed that there is going to be a massive shift in approach.

This approach cause London to have fewer than 50 receiving yards in 10 games last season. While London was highly target per route run, 58 other wide receivers in the league ran more pass routes last season.

London still had strong usage per snap with Kyle Pitts on the field, but he also did perform his best with Pitts off the field.

D.J. Moore was the WR24 in overall scoring and WR35 in per-game output last season as he was once again derailed by quarterback play.

After five years in the league, Moore has now finished higher than WR27 in points per game just once with a high at WR17.

21.2% of Moore’s targets were deemed inaccurate due to the quarterback last season, which was the second-worst rate among all wideouts with 100 or more targets on the season.

Looking to break out of that cycle in 2023, Moore is now attached to Justin Fields, who was 30th in the league in inaccuracy rate targeting wide receivers in 2022 (19.1%).

We have seen the additions of Stefon Diggs and A.J. Brown in recent seasons be tidal waves in turning around quarterback play. But with the passing acumen of Fields still a looming question and Chicago potentially being a run-heavy offense once again, Moore still takes a significant step of faith as more than a volatile WR2.

Overall team passing volume needs to take a complete reversal here. Chicago was dead last in the NFL in pass rate below expectations (-14.0%) in 2022. Even worse, they were -25.0% below expectations on second downs needing eight or more yards. The next closest team was at -13.0%.

Perpetually underrated for fantasy (and perhaps here again), Tyler Lockett has been the WR16 or better in overall scoring in each of the past five seasons.

He has been the WR24 or better in per-game scoring in each of those seasons, which includes closing as the WR17 in points per game a year ago.

Lockett did run hot last season in touchdowns as he was the WR25 in expected points scored.

His 22.0% target rate per route was 30th while he had 24 fewer targets than DK Metcalf when the two were on the field together.

Lockett will turn 31 this September while we wait and see how Jaxon Smith-Njigba fits into the equation. Lockett played in the slot more (36.7% of snaps) compared to Metcalf (15.6%), so Smith-Njigba should impact where he lines up more.

Lockett was targeted on 24.7% of his routes run when in the slot compared to a 20.2% rate lined up outside. On a positive note, seven of his touchdowns did come on the outside.

Mike Williams missed four full games last season.

Playing 76% of the snaps, Williams has yet to play in every game since his rookie season and has played 80% of the snaps or more in just one season now in the NFL.

When on the field, Williams was still a solid splash-play receiver. He averaged 14.2 yards per catch while his 9.6 yards per target were his highest rate in a season since 2019. Williams also secured 67.7% of his targets, which was a career-high.

But he was also targeted on just 20.1% of his routes (50th) and once again was a hyper-volatile producer.

Williams had six weeks as the WR15 or better to go along with seven as the WR34 or lower.

He had one of the largest splits versus man and zone coverage last season, being targeted on 31.8% of his routes against man coverage (10th) as opposed to 16.6% against zone (78th).

From a value stance, Brandin Cooks is far too cheap this summer.

I get that he was a massive disappointment last year in a season in which he “quiet quit”, but the market has overcorrected itself for a player that has been the WR22 or better in per-game scoring in seven of his nine NFL seasons.

Cooks was still a strong performer in Matt Harmon's Reception Perception, so he still has juice.

I see him in a similar fashion as Amari Cooper a year ago, as a player who has a clearly strong resume but is being heavily discounted changing teams, something both have in common.

Cooks will not be the WR1 on his team like Cooper was (although he does have contingency upside in that department should anything happen to CeeDee Lamb) but he has done nothing but produce when he has been attached to functional (and sometimes without) quarterback play.

I am a believer that the Cowboys end up playing more aggressively than assumed by the public this offseason because their best players on offense outright fit them running a lot of 11 personnel compared to a year ago when Dalton Schultz was their second-best pass catcher.

Mike Evans will turn 30 this August before the season.

Evans notched his ninth straight 1,000-yard season in 2022 but his days of being a front-end elite wideout could be closing.

Evans was targeted on 20.1% of his routes last season, which was 48th among all wide receivers to run 100 or more pass routes. His 1.75 yards per route run ranked 35th among the same group.

We discussed some of the potential concerns surrounding the Tampa Bay passing game this season above with Chris Godwin, so we won’t go all of the way in on those again.

As bad as things do appear on the surface, if you are looking for any signs of hope this situation does have some of the feel of what Seattle went through last offseason when they traded away Russell Wilson (minus the incoming draft picks).

Entering the year with presumably just two marquee wide receivers as their core on offense, a quarterback battle between players perceived as having no chance to be successful, and a young, makeshift offensive line, there are a ton of parallels here to that Seattle team from a year ago.

Those Seattle offensive players ended up being fantasy values last season, but can we coax out a season from Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask on par with what Geno Smith provided a year ago?

Arizona acquired Marquise Brown during the draft last season and immediately picked up his fifth-year option which he is playing under this season.

Brown opened the season on a strong note while DeAndre Hopkins was suspended.

Over the opening six weeks of the season, Brown was fifth in the NFL in receptions (43) and seventh in receiving yards (485) with three touchdowns.

Over that span, Brown led the NFL in routes run (269) which inflated his counting stats, but he was 15th among all wide receivers in team target share (26.3%).

Brown then fractured his foot and missed the next five games. Kyler Murray was then injured the following week and everything fell apart in this offense.

Over the final six games of the season, Brown caught just 24-of-43 targets for 224 yards and no touchdowns.

Over that span, 30.2% of Brown’s targets were deemed inaccurate due to the quarterback, which was the highest rate in the league.

With Murray under center, 19.7% of Brown's targets were deemed inaccurate compared to a 30.6% inaccurate rate when any other Arizona passer was throwing to him (37.5% with Colt McCoy on the 16-target sample).

Brown gets a bump with the release of Hopkins, but we still need Murray to return for a large portion of the season to make Brown more than a volatile fantasy option. He is a player I anticipate will have a stronger finish to the season than the start of the year.

Brandon Aiyuk was the WR15 last season in overall scoring and the WR25 in points per game. He set early-career highs in targets (114), catches (78), yards (1,015), and touchdowns (eight).

While he looks like a massive value right now, his role in the San Francisco offense paired with their low-volume passing game dampens the fantasy excitement overall unless Deebo Samuel misses time again.

Aiyuk has nine WR1 scoring weeks since entering the league. Five of those have come in games Samuel has missed.

Aiyuk had 20 or more PPR points three times last season and Samuel was absent for two of those weeks.

In the 13 games that Samuel was active, Aiyuk was the average WR35 in weekly scoring (12.6 points per game), averaging 4.3 catches for 56.4 yards per game.

For his career, Aiyuk has a 19.1% target rate per route rate with Deebo on the field compared to a 22.3% with Samuel off.

We also outright may need Brock Purdy not to play at all. With both Purdy and Deebo on the field, Samuel had 28.1% of the team targets while Aiyuk was below a 1.0 YRR (0.93) on those snaps.

Aiyuk also did run hot on his opportunities. He was the WR6 in points scored in the red zone last season compared to checking in as the WR23 in expected points near the end zone.

Inside of the 10, Aiyuk only had four targets, but three of them went for scores. He had just three total end zone targets (the same amount as River Cracraft) securing two of them for touchdowns.

I am all about Aiyuk as an overall talent and his draft cost is more than palatable for his displayed talent early in his career, but this is another example of how frustrating this San Francisco passing game can be from a volume standpoint. It is an offense that breeds efficiency, but it would be great for us as gamers if we did not have to rely on it for players we wish had more overall opportunity.

Jerry Jeudy was originally in the previous tier, but his late preseason hamstring injury places him in an ominous position.

Jeudy is expected to miss “several” weeks, but it is the reoccurrence potential that is troublesome and knocks him down draft boards.

If you are more risk adverse, Jeudy has yet to put together a full season through three years in the league but showed some promise to close last season after catching 67-of-100 targets for 972 yards and six touchdowns.

Over the final five weeks of the year, Jeudy was the WR2 in overall scoring and WR9 in expected points.

Jeudy had 11 games in which he played 60% of the team snaps, but in those games, he was the average weekly WR20, averaging 5.5 catches for 79.9 yards per game those weeks.

He was a WR2 or better in eight of those 11 games and lower than the WR27 just twice.

Tier 7 Fantasy Football WRs:

• Rashod Bateman
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Jordan Addison
• Treylon Burks
• Kadarius Toney
• Jahan Dotson
• George Pickens
• Jameson Williams

Now we get to have a bit of fun.

This is where the position opens up and we are starting to make bets based on youth and upside.

If a wide receiver is going to break out and massively trump ADP, it almost always going to happen in years 1-3 of their career.

This is a tier of options where I want to add multiple players from per draft.

After missing five games as a rookie in 2021, Rashod Bateman played in just six games last season due to a season-ending foot injury.

When Bateman was on the field, he provided a wealth of splash plays. Even if unsustainable over a full season, Bateman was averaging 19.0 yards per reception and 10.2 yards per target before the injury.

He only played in six games and was still tied for third on the team with five receptions of 20 or more yards, behind Mark Andrews (nine) and Devin Duvernay (six).

I may be holding onto the flame that I was immensely high on Bateman as a prospect, but I still view him as the best full-field receiving asset on a Baltimore roster that we are largely betting on playing with a faster tempo and pushing the ball through the air in 2023.

There still is a question on if Jaxon Smith-Njigba has the type of ceiling next level to contend with the alpha WR1s in the league.

It is only a question because Smith-Njigba does still take some projection as a perimeter wide receiver.

He ran just 85 total pass routes lined up outside in college. 95 of his 110 catches in college came from the slot while he ran just 15 total pass routes over three years at Ohio State with two or fewer wide receivers on the field.

Smith-Njigba has zero pressure to carry a passing game right away in the NFL going to Seattle, but that also makes him a better bet as someone that has a stronger close to the 2023 season and a contingency bet should DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett miss time.

In 2022, Metcalf and Lockett combined for 46.7% of the team targets, 43.6% of the receptions, 48.6% of the receiving yards, and 50% of the receiving scores.

Seattle used 11 personnel on just 63.0% of their passing plays in 2022, which was 26th in the league. That rate is a lock to rise with the addition of Smith-Njigba.

Smith-Njigba suffered a wrist fracture that could have him sidelined to open the season.

With a 3-6 window on return, the Seahawks have a Week 5 bye, further pushing his return and potential delivery for gamers towards the second half of the season.

Jordan Addison was the 2021 Biletnikoff Award Winner and was a pivotal part of pumping Kenny Pickett’s stock a year ago when he caught 100 passes for 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns at Pitt.

Transferring to USC this past season, Addison had more mid-production (59-875-8) but still carried his higher-end efficiency.

Addison was still sixth in this draft class in yards per route run last season (2.78). He just ran 226 fewer routes in 2022 than he did in 2021.

Addison torched man coverage for 3.28 yards per route run this past season (eighth) while he showed plenty of versatility the past two seasons playing inside and outside.

After running 67.5% of his routes from the slot in 2021, Addison only ran 24.1% of his routes inside a year ago. He also only had a 3.1% drop rate, which was the fourth-best rate in this class.

Addison gave people some pause in Indianapolis when he not only checked in at 5-foot-11 and 173 pounds but also posted an athletic score in the sixth percentile.

Landing in Minnesota, Addison has the clearest path to initial playing time and making a fantasy impact of any first-round rookie receiver.

While the first three wideouts selected in the draft are better bets as the upside adds to fantasy benches, Addison should be thrust into a real opportunity right away.

In 2022, Adam Thielen was second in the NFL in routes run.

Even if the Vikings do not play in as many jailbreak game environments, Addison should take on that full-time vacancy as the WR2 in this offense.

He also gets viable quarterback play out of the gate, a strong offensive scheme, and an elite wide receiver on the field to draw attention for him to develop. On top of everything, Addison also has more of a path to opportunity should anything god forbid happen to Justin Jefferson.

The Titans used their first-round pick (18th overall) on Treylon Burks last spring.

Burks caught 33-of-54 targets for 444 yards and a touchdown as he worked through missing six games as a rookie.

Among rookie wideouts, Burks was seventh in yards per route run (1.75) and seventh in targets per route run (21.3%).

Burks looked to be turning the corner as a rookie after games of 7-111-0 and 4-70-0 in Weeks 11 and 12.
He then caught a 25-yard touchdown in Week 13 but suffered a concussion on the play that forced him to miss the next two games.

By the time he returned, Ryan Tannehill was out of the lineup and this passing game was barely functional.

While Burks has a runway to grow, we do have to consider that this passing game could 1) not be any good, 2) still struggle with overall volume, 3) may turn to Will Levis for a chunk of the season, and now 4) have DeAndre Hopkins on board to prevent Burks completely going wild with targets.

Burks not only will have to contend with Hopkins, but also should be limited to open the year due to a knee injury.

Kadarius Toney has missed 15 games over his first two years in the NFL.

He ran just 85 total pass routes with the Chiefs last season, but he was targeted on 31.8% of those routes, which led the team.

Toney has been an efficient player when on the field. He has averaged 2.12 yards per route run (WR19 over the past two seasons) and has been targeted on 27.6% of his routes (WR7).

It is hard to push back on making cheap swings on players attached to Patrick Mahomes that also have first-round draft capital.

But we still have to take a step of faith in him drawing playing time since 139 wide receivers have run more pass routes than him since he entered the league and we do not have a tangible sample of Toney generating full-field targets.

Toney has averaged just 5.5 air yards per target in the NFL. 17.2% of his targets have screen passes. The average rate for a wide receiver in the past two seasons is 7.2%.

Jahan Dotson caught 35-of-61 targets for 523 yards and seven touchdowns across 12 games as a rookie.

Dotsonwas the WR13 in red zone points scores but WR57 in expected red zone points. He had seven touchdowns as a rookie, but just three came inside of the 10-yard line.

Dotson only had seven total red zone targets, converting five of them (71.4%) for touchdowns. The base rate for the league in converting those targets was 24.5%.

He had just three targets inside of the 10-yard line (all three were touchdowns) while he converted six (75%) of his eight end zone targets last season. The league rate was 37.1%.

The good news for Dotson is he became more of a target earner as the season progressed, which is what we will need to spill over into year two to combat any scoring regression.

While the counting stats were lukewarm outside of touchdowns, it was how Dotson finished the season that gives him positive momentum heading into year two.

Over his final five games of the season, Dotson was the WR16 in overall scoring and WR26 in expected points. Over that span, he was targeted 22.2% of his routes (24th among wide receivers) which was a higher rate than Terry McLaurin (21.4%). He averaged 2.18 yards per route in those games (WR16).

We still have big-picture quarterback questions in Washington, but Dotson is a cheap year-two bet to make as a bench wide receiver while he has contingency upside that is not priced in should anything happen to McLaurin.

Jameson Williams only logged 78 offensive snaps as a rookie, catching just one pass (at least it was a 41-yard touchdown) on nine targets.

He now is suspended for the opening six games of the season for violating the league’s gambling policy.

Players suspended have historically been undervalued in fantasy drafts since replacement value is never fully priced in.

But Williams not only is suspended, but has been stuck in a negative feedback loop all offseason.

The staff has expressed that they want him to fully earn his spot while he will the rest of the preseason with a hamstring injury.

The Lions still have a wide-open runway for Williams to operate as their WR2 when he is back on the field.

Tier 8 Fantasy Football WRs:

• Gabe Davis
• Courtland Sutton
• Michael Thomas
• Michael Pittman
• Nico Collins
• Michael Gallup
• Allen Lazard
• Odell Beckham

We are deep into the position, but there are still plenty of brand names available.

The wideouts in this tier still carry enough cache to provide FOMO on their best-case outcomes but are still high-variance options to bet on.

The good news is that variance is largely priced in for all of these players.

Gabriel Davis caught 48-of-93 targets for 836 yards and seven touchdowns last season.

He still was a splash play option, averaging 17.4 yards per catch (second in the NFL for all wideouts with 30 or more catches) while another 14.6% of his catches went for scores (third), but it is the in-between consistency between big plays for Davis that made him disappointing based on draft cost last season.

Davis was targeted on only 16.0% of his routes (88th among receivers) and struggled again versus man coverage. Davis was targeted on just 12.3% of his routes against man coverage (126th) while averaging 0.78 yards per route versus man coverage (116th).

Davis did play through an early-season ankle injury that may have hampered his hopeful breakout season and the Bills did not bring in any wideouts that can push him off being someone who gets major playing time attached to Josh Allen.

Now properly priced as a boom-or-bust WR4/FLEX option, Davis is still appealing based on his weekly upside, offensive environment, and backdoor path to opportunity should Stefon Diggs miss any action.

We are now five years into Courtland Sutton’s career and still do not have a large sample of him being more than a lid lifter.

Closing 2022 as the WR43 in points per game, Sutton now has just one season inside of the top 40 wideouts in points per game.

Last season, he did not manage a single WR1 scoring week.

To his credit, he only had four weeks lower than WR40 over his 15 games, but Sutton was surpassed by Jerry Jeudy as a more reliable target in the offense.

When both were on the field together, Jeudy was targeted on 21.0% of his routes while averaging 2.10 yards per route run compared to an 18.7% target per route rate and 1.21 yards per route for Sutton.

But with Jeudy now compromised to start the season paired with the injury to Tim Patrick, Sutton has a runway to outproduce his ADP early in the season.

Sutton ran 183 routes last season with Jerry Jeudy off the field.

On those routes he averaged 2.20 yards per route run while accounting for 29.7% of the team targets and 39.9% of the team air yards.

The best path for him is if Sean Payton views him as having big-slot potential and uses him in a Michael Thomas fashion.

Speaking of Thomas, he is still out there and on the Saints.

Whatever the Saints get out of Thomas at this stage is a bonus. Thomas turned 30 years old this March and has played in just 10 games over the past three seasons.

Thomas did still show that he has a pulse in his limited sample last season, albeit living off touchdown output.

Over the opening three games of the season, Thomas caught 16-of-22 targets for 171 yards and three touchdowns.

Michael Pittman enters the final season of his rookie contract still without a breakout under his belt.

Pittman was 12th in the NFL in targets (141) and 10th in receptions (99) in 2022 but was 25th in receiving yards (925) with just four touchdowns.

His 9.3 yards per catch were the same as Cade Otton’s and ahead of only Greg Dortch (9.0) and Russell Gage (8.4) among the 51 wide receivers to catch 50 or more passes last season.

No player can be looking forward to the system change under Shane Steichen more than Pittman.

Pittman averaged just 6.9 air yards per target in 2022 (127th among all wide receivers to run 100 or more routes). Just 6.2% of his routes (132nd) and 4.3% of his targets (138th) were on routes or throws 20 yards or further downfield. 26.5% of Pittman’s routes were hitch routes (second in the league).

There is some “chicken or egg?” in play with how much of Pittman’s lack of output through three seasons is on his shoulders or the quarterback play and system.

He has been a target earner for the past two seasons and the team still has next to nothing around him.

He is a sound bet to lead this team in targets again in 2023 with a new system and quarterback, but that latter component does make him a tough bet to break out.

Since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, there have been 51 first-round rookie quarterbacks that have made five or more starts in a season.

There have been just six top-12 scoring wide receiver seasons and 14 top-24 scoring receiver seasons attached to those quarterbacks. 78.4% of those team WR1 options had a decline in fantasy scoring from the previous season.

It is hard to believe that Pittman can be worse than last season since the bar was set so low, but are we getting genuine upside here or just baseline weekly production that looks better at season’s end compared to his ADP?

Nico Collins led the Texans in targets in each of his final four games played last season, but he has lacked any steady fantasy appeal through two seasons in the league.

Collins has just two top-30 scoring weeks through two seasons.

Houston only has one player though that stands out in their receiving corps from an archetypical stance and that is Collins.

25.8% of Collins’ targets in 2022 were deemed inaccurate. 35.7% of his targets on throws 10 yards or further were inaccurate and 55.6% of his deep targets were inaccurate.

In the pocket, C.J. Stroud led the class with 10.0 yards per pass attempt while no quarterback in this draft class had a higher rating this past season (129.6) on throws 10 yards or further downfield than Stroud.

On throws 10 yards or further downfield outside of the numbers, Stroud led this class with an on-target rate of 65.2%.

Returning from an ACL injury last season, Michael Gallup never got on track.

He ended the season with just 39 catches for 424 yards and four touchdowns over 14 games and was well off the fantasy radar.

Even expecting Gallup to have more juice this season a full year removed from the injury, he resembles the Dallas version of Courtland Sutton. We just do not have a large sample of Gallup being a consistently productive fantasy asset while the perception is greater.

Gallup will enter his sixth season with no season catching 70 passes or more than six touchdowns, but he has an attachment to a good offense and added appeal as a contingency play.

Baltimore is going to attempt to squeeze out what is left in the tank of Odell Beckham.

Beckham sat out the entire 2022 season after tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl the year prior.

Beckham will turn 31 this November and has not averaged more than 45.6 yards receiving per game in a season since 2019 and the last time we saw him in a uniform for the Rams, he was averaging a career-low 11.3 yards per reception.

Still, this was a relatively low-risk signing for a team with limited options for adding players to the position due to an extremely weak free-agent class. Even if Beckham is not the player that he was early in his career, a glass-half-empty version of Beckham has a low bar to clear what the Ravens put on the field at the position a year ago.

The Jets added Allen Lazard this offseason on a four-year contract that can be as small as a two-year contract.

In 2022, Lazard set career-highs in targets (100), receptions (60), and receiving yards (788) to go along with six touchdowns.

We have a great understanding of what we have in Lazard.

He is strong in the contested catch game and a solid isolation receiver that struggles with nuance and creating separation.

Lazard was targeted on 26.6% of his routes with 1.93 yards per route run against man coverage last season. He was targeted on 16.6% of his routes with 1.45 yards per route run against zone coverage.

Tier 9 Fantasy Football WRs:

• Zay Flowers
• Quentin Johnston
• Rondale Moore
• Jonathan Mingo
• Elijah Moore
• Wan'Dale Robinson
• Tyquan Thornton
• John Metchie
• Skyy Moore
• Marvin Mims
• Jayden Reed

This tier of wideouts is based on a similar approach to Tier 7 but are options that take a larger step of faith to take based on either draft capital or early-career performance. But under the same premise, we want to be taking swings on cheap wideouts in years 1-3 of their careers.

Zay Flowers was force-fed in some anemic passing offenses, closing his career at Boston College with 78 catches for 1,077 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2022. Those touchdowns were a school record. He tied the school record for receptions in a season.

For the context of how much water Flowers carried for Boston College, he accounted for 29.8% of the team receptions (sixth in this class), 36.4% of the receiving yardage (third), and 57.1% of the team touchdown catches (first).

Flowers is 5-foot-9 and 182 pounds. He came out of Indianapolis registering in the 26th percentile in terms of athletic score while his 29.5-inch arms were in the second percentile at the position. This was not an issue last season as Flowers pulled in 7-of-12 contested targets (58.3%), which was eighth in this class.

That said, Flowers does project to play more in the slot in the NFL than the 31.9% rate he played a year ago. That should be the case in 2023 playing alongside Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham, although Bateman has plenty of slot experience going back to college to provide the Ravens with versatility.

Flowers could outright open as a starter in Baltimore. Even if he does not, has contingency value behind Bateman and Beckham. Bateman has missed 16 games over his first two NFL seasons while Beckham will turn 31 this November.

At 6-foot-2 and 208 pounds, Quentin Johnston logged a 94th percentile explosion score in the vertical plus broad jumps.

On the field, Johnston’s athleticism shows up in his robust 8.9 yards after the catch per reception (second in this class) while 49.9% of his yardage came after the catch (sixth).

He was credited with 19 avoided tackles a year ago per Pro Football Focus, second in this class. With his after-the-catch ability, Johnston ended his collegiate career averaging 19.0 yards per reception, third in this class.

A concern for Johnston is he tends to play smaller than his profile, which is why he needs to remain elite after the catch.

He caught just 8-of-23 (34.8%) contested targets this past season (35th) while tacking on an 11.8% drop rate (sixth highest). For his career, Johnston converted just 2-of-18 red zone targets for touchdowns.

He also tended to disappear and be more of a boom-or-bust performer. Johnston had 50 or fewer yards in half of his 30 career games played (7-of-14 this season). The last time we saw him on the field against Georgia, he caught one pass for three yards in that bloodbath.

The good news is that in going to Los Angeles, Johnston will not be thrust into carrying a passing game.

That makes him a boom-or-bust WR5 for fantasy since Josh Palmer is not going to just roll over here and play zero snaps, but Johnston will have a runway to develop.

With both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams approaching their thirties paired with their health history, Johnston also will carry contingency upside.

Allen missed seven full regular season games and had two other games in which he only played 33% and 32% of the snaps due to ongoing hamstring issues. Williams also missed four full games last season. Playing 76% of the snaps, Williams has yet to play in every game since his rookie season and has played 80% of the snaps or more in just one season so far in the NFL.

Rondale Moore is in the third season of his rookie contract.

Moore showed some growth in his second season, but he only played in eight games after missing three games as a rookie.

In six fewer games than his rookie season, Moore had just eight fewer targets (56), 13 fewer receptions (41), and just 21 fewer receiving yards (414).

Moore went from a laughable 1.4 air yards per target as a rookie up to…5.5 air yards per target in his second season.

While that was still 137th out of 142 wide receivers to run 100 or more routes, Moore did see a significant improvement in targets.

60.9% of his targets as a rookie came behind the line of scrimmage while just 4.7% were in the intermediate area of the field. In 2022, his target rate behind the line of scrimmage went down to 26.8% while his intermediate target rate rose to 14.3%.

Moore still has to answer the question of whether he will ever be a traditional secondary passing option and needs to stay healthy for us to get a proper gauge on things with this new regime.

Jonathan Mingo never had a 1,000-yard season in college and failed to top 379 yards before his senior year, but he averaged 15.7 yards per catch over his career, 12th in this class.

He had spurts of production battling through injuries, but the Panthers used tangible draft capital on him (39th overall) this spring to give him a clear runway in year one to playing time.

The depth chart in Carolina only has Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark as initial roadblocks, two players that have underperformed in recent seasons.

Even if Mingo is behind those veterans to open the season, he is drawing life to lead the Panthers in targets as a rookie.

At 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds, Mingo ran a 4.46 forty (90th percentile speed score) with a 90th percentile explosion score. Mingo also has some mitts. His 10 3/8-inch hands are in the 96th percentile for wide receivers.

The Browns acquired Elijah Moore this offseason from the Jets, hoping to recapture the production Moore showcased during his rookie season and as a collegiate prospect.

Moore had a disastrous 2022 season with the Jets.

The team moved him from the slot early in the season and deployed him as a vertical field stretcher. From Week 1 to Week 6, Moore played 79.8% of his snaps out wide. He carried a depth of target of 15.0 yards downfield (seventh in the league over that span). 20.7% of his targets were deemed inaccurate per Pro Football Focus over that span.

Moore voiced his displeasure about his role and target volume and was subsequently made inactive the following week. Working out of the doghouse, Moore only played 50% of the snaps in one of the following four weeks before the team was forced to move him back into the lineup regularly due to injuries.

By the time the season ended, Moore was targeted on 13.1% of his routes and averaged 0.90 yards per route run. Those marks checked in 123rd and 121st among 143 qualifying wideouts last season.

Even if Moore cannot rekindle the spark of his rookie campaign, his 2022 output is still an improvement over what Cleveland received from David Bell as a rookie.

The Browns want to use more wide receivers as well.

Cleveland used 11 personnel on 70.9% of their passing plays in 2022. That was 20th in the NFL still but well up from the 53.4% (29th) and 45.4% (31st) rates that the team deployed in Kevin Stefanski’s first two seasons.

That 11 personnel rate climbed up to 76.8% of the passing plays with Deshaun Watson under center compared to a 68.0% rate with Jacoby Brissett.

Wan’Dale Robinson was fifth among all rookie wideouts last season in target rate per route run (24.0%) and sixth in yards per route run (1.76).

Robinson averaged just 6.2 air yards per target, which was 132nd in the position. 77.4% of his targets were shorter than 10 yards downfield. The NFL average for wideouts last season was 57.7%.

Unfortunately, Robinson also had an ACL injury that has him playing catch-up in his second season.

Robinson had surgery in December to repair his ACL, pushing his timeline as a fantasy contributor into the season.

The Patriots selected Tyquan Thornton in the second round (50th overall). His season got off to a slow start, missing the opening four games due to a broken clavicle.

Returning from injury, Thornton caught 22-of-45 targets for 247 yards and two touchdowns with an added rushing touchdown over the final 13 games. His 0.77 yards per route run ranked 122nd among 134 qualifying wide receivers over the stretch. The only rookies that he was ahead of over that span were David Bell and Brandon Johnson.

John Metchie was the 44th overall pick last offseason. After coming off an ACL injury, he was forced to miss all of his rookie seasons with an illness but is back with the team this summer.

Metchie should be the front-runner to win the slot receiver job. 56.9% of his yardage at Alabama stemmed from yards after the catch (fourth in that draft class), and he averaged 6.8 yards after the catch per reception (14th).

Skyy Moore was selected 54th overall in last year’s draft, but he managed to get on the field for just 29% of the offensive snaps, catching 27 passes for 267 yards and one touchdown. His 9.9 yards per reception were the fewest for any Kansas City wide receiver a year ago.

Moore still has a wide-open runway to earn playing time in year two in the league’s best offense, so buying the dip compared to his ADP versus Kadarius Toney’s is something we should be taking swings on.

Marvin Mims gets elevation through the Broncos trading up to select him in the second round paired with the depth chart being shuffled this offseason. With injuries to Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick and the release of K.J. Hamler, Mims has an opening to have an immediate role in the offense.

Mims has the makings of a player that gels with Russell Wilson's strengths as a passer that wants to hunt for big gains.

Mims increased his yardage at Oklahoma in each of his three seasons there, capped by pulling in 54 receptions for 1,083 yards and six touchdowns this season. He averaged 19.5 yards per catch for his collegiate career, which ranks second in this class.

In 2022, Mims averaged 17.0 air yards per target (second in this class) while a class-high 36.7% of his targets were on throws 20 yards or further downfield. Mims caught 20 touchdown passes over his three seasons with the Sooners. 19 of them were on throws 20 or more yards downfield.

As a byproduct of his role and leading the team in targets, Mims and his 2.66 yards per team attempt ranked fourth among all wideouts in this class.

Jayden Reed has some “squint and see it” comparisons to a poor man’s Stefon Diggs coming out of Maryland due to size, physical profile, and diverse usage in college.

Both had nondescript showings at the Combine that did not match the way they contributed in the passing, rushing, and return game.

He then received higher draft capital than expected this spring, being the sixth wide receiver selected in the draft.

Popping for fantasy in his rookie season attached to Jordan Love would be a surprise, and playing in two-WR sets to open the season seems unlikely. Still, Reed should immediately play in the slot for the Packers this season.

Tier 10 Fantasy Football WRs:

• JuJu Smith-Schuster
• Jakobi Meyers
• Tyler Boyd
• Adam Thielen
• Zay Jones
• Hunter Renfrow
• K.J. Osborn
• Kyle Philips
• Josh Downs
• Tank Dell

Getting closer to the finish line, these bench wideouts are made up of options that rely on volume over efficiency and ability to generate splash plays.

JuJu Smith-Schuster will still only turn 27 years old this November and is coming off catching 78-of-101 targets for 933 yards and three touchdowns with the Chiefs last season.

Over the first eight games of the season, Smith-Schuster caught 44 passes for 582 yards and two scores.

Over his final 11 games, he caught 44 passes for 440 yards and one score.

While performing as a bench wide receiver for the Chiefs and then going to a worse passing game is a red flag, he still can be an effective slot receiver. His 2.03 yards per route run against zone coverage ranked 20th among wideouts, but his 1.30 yards per route against man coverage ranked 84th.

The Raiders signed Jakobi Meyers this offseason to a three-year contract worth up to $33 million, reuniting him with Josh McDaniels.

Meyers is coming off a season in which he averaged 4.8 receptions for a career-high 57.4 yards per game. He even found his way into the end zone six times after scoring two touchdowns over his first three years in the league.

If wondering how Meyers fits in with Hunter Renfrow, Meyers was effective last season when tasked to move out of the slot. Meyers was fifth among wideouts in yards per route run outside of the slot (2.64).

That sample was only 126 routes (fewer than every player above him). In 2021, Meyers ran 178 routes outside of the slot and averaged 1.87 yards per route run (43rd), so apply any small sample grains of salt.

The one thing we do know is that Meyers will have a hard time rolling over his 22.8% (25th) and 23.6% (27th) target per route rates playing alongside Davante Adams.

The team still has Renfrow signed for the next two seasons.

Renfrow missed seven games last season due to injury and it impacted his play. He averaged a career-low 9.1 yards per catch. Through four years in the league, the only spike in Renfrow’s output came in 2021 when injuries to Darren Waller and the rightful cancellation of Henry Ruggs cleared a Tarmac for targets.

Tyler Boyd has been a steady WR3 and contributor for the Bengals, but his 1.36 yards per route are 33rd among 38 players with 1,000-plus pass routes the past two seasons. The only players with a lower rate in that department over that period are Adam Thielen, Evan Engram, Marvin Jones, K.J. Osborn, and Dawson Knox.

Even with both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins missing time last season, Boyd was only the WR48 in points per game.

Thielen will be 33 years old when the season kicks off and is coming off a season in which he was the WR45 in points per game.

Thielen was second in the NFL among wide receivers in routes run last season with Minnesota but was 42nd in actual receiving yards.

Thielen could lead Carolina in receptions in 2023, but attached to a rookie quarterback and given his age and recent performance, it is hard to see Thielen as more than a floor-based fantasy option built on target opportunity.

Zay Jones set career-highs in targets (121), catches (82), and receiving yards (823) to go along with five touchdowns.

Jones had scored just two touchdowns over the previous three seasons. A good amount of what Jones did in 2022 was volume driven as his 1.44 yards per route run ranked 64th at the position while his 10.0 yards per catch were 44th out of 51 wideouts to catch 50 or more passes.

With the addition of Calvin Ridley and still behind Christian Kirk, Jones will not command as many targets but is a solid option in 3WR sets and can be elevated in a pinch should Kirk or Ridley miss time.

K.J. Osborn ended 2022 on a positive note. Through 12 games last season, Osborn was targeted on just 13.1% of his routes, catching 30-of-52 targets for 262 yards and two touchdowns.

Over the final six games of the season, Osborn was targeted on 18.5% of his routes, catching 32-of-41 targets for 408 yards and four touchdowns.

While the conclusion of 2022 gives Osborn momentum to build off heading into this season, he is in the final season of his rookie contract and still has to fight for targets with first-round rookie Jordan Addison.

You can make the case for all of Josh Downs, Kyle Philips, and Tank Dell to be included in the previous tier based on where they are on the age spectrum, but none of them have optimal draft capital or project to be wideouts that operate independent of volume in the NFL.

There is some hope that Philips can develop into a solid slot receiver.

The team selected Philips in the fifth-round last season. He caught 6-of-9 targets for 66 yards in Week 1 last year. He also operated as the primary punt returner and his first return went for 46 yards. But he suffered ankle and hamstring injuries that forced him to miss 13 games.

Tennessee has added next to nothing at receiver this offseason.

Downs (5-foot-9 and 171 pounds) is another hyper-productive slot archetype.

Downs was a production machine for the past two seasons in North Carolina, catching 101 and 94 passes. No player in this class averaged more receptions per game for their career than Downs (7.2). He made them all count as his 12.3 yards per reception came in 47th out of the 50 Combine invites. His 8.8 average depth of target checked in at 43rd.

Downs ran 82.5% of his routes in the slot.

Dell was one of the most productive wide receivers in this class. His 6.5 receptions per game over his collegiate career were third while his 90.1 receiving yards per game were the best in the class.

Dell is such an outlier in size (5-foot-8 and 165 pounds) that it is hard to see him sustaining a passing game funneled through him at the NFL level as he did at Houston. He is on the Andrew Hawkins spectrum of slot receivers and will need to roll over a ton of volume to be a major fantasy contributor from a fantasy perspective.

Dell ran a 4.49 forty at the Combine at his limited size, which was in the third percentile for speed scores for all prospects since 2000, and the lowest of this class.

The last thing in the way for all three of Philips, Downs, and Dell is their attachment to rookie quarterbacks who will likely limit their output.

Tier 11 Fantasy Football WRs:

• Isaiah Hodgins
• Donovan Peoples-Jones
• D.J. Chark
• Rashid Shaheed
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling
• Alec Pierce
• Van Jefferson
• Rashee Rice
• Jalin Hyatt
• Marvin Mims Jr.
• Romeo Doubs
• Khalil Shakir
• Deonte Harty

This tier operates under the inverse premise of Tier 10 These players are options who do not project for tons of volume but get higher value targets downfield compared to that previous group.

The Giants threw everything they could at the wide receiver position last season. As part of that process, Isaiah Hodgins closed the season as the primary pass catcher.

Hodgins did not play 70% of the team snaps until Week 12, but from that point through Week 17 (he rested in Week 18), he was the WR17 in overall scoring and the WR24 in expected points per game, catching 28 passes for 281 yards and four touchdowns.

Hodgins then smashed in the opening round of the playoffs, catching 8-of-9 targets for 105 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Vikings.

At 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds, Hodgins stands out (literally) among the New York wideouts, but grains of salt need to be applied since his spike in production also coincided with the Giants not having Wan’Dale Robinson or Sterling Shepard on the field over that stretch. The team has also added Darren Waller, Jalin Hyatt, and Parris Campbell as potential targets in the offense.

Donovan Peoples-Jones enters 2023 in the final season of his rookie contract.

Peoples-Jones was pressed into becoming a full-time wide receiver last season and was a solid contributor. He ran a route on 92.5% of Cleveland dropbacks last season, which was 11th among all wide receivers.

When the dust settled on the season, Peoples-Jones secured 61-of-96 targets for 839 yards and three touchdowns. He was targeted on 16.9% of his routes (81st among all wideouts with 100 or more routes run) while averaging 1.48 yards per route run (59th).

D.J. Chark has just never been able to recapture the magic he had to open the 2019 season. Leaving Detroit after catching 30 passes for 502 yards and three scores, Chark has finished as the WR43, WR66, and WR58 in points per game since his breakout season.

A thin target tree in Carolina is the last thing keeping the lights on, and Chark can still get vertical at least. His 16.7 yards per catch in 2022 were fifth in the league among wideouts with 30 or more receptions.

The Colts selected Alec Pierce in the second round (53rd overall) last season. As a rookie, Pierce caught 41-of-78 targets for 593 yards and two touchdowns.

Pierce was third among all rookie wideouts last season in routes run (477), but he ranked 10th in targets per route (16.4%) and 12th in yards per route run (1.24).

Pierce will get another good look at playing time in his second season under the new regime, but the addition of Josh Downs and playing with a rookie quarterback whose mobility can limit passing volume paired and who has accuracy concerns does not provide a soft landing for his potential floor.

Rashee Rice is the latest Kansas City rookie wideout to have intrigue based on landing spot, but these options have been a slow burn for fantasy.

Rice increased his receptions and touchdowns from the season prior in all four seasons at SMU. He had a senior season breakout fueled by 157 targets (second in this class).

He was targeted on 35.7% of his routes (third) as SMU just tried to get him the football as much as possible. Rice received 35 targets on screens, the most in the class a year ago. He only ran 17.5% of his routes in the slot but averaged 4.99 yards per route when inside, which was third.

Despite having the aid of so many screens, Rice also led the class with 40 targets on throws 20 yards or further downfield.

Rice has the size (6-foot-1 and 204 pounds), respectable speed (51st percentile speed score), and a 90th percentile explosion score in the jumping drills (vertical plus broad) to keep the lights on for making plays, but I would bet on him more next year than in 2023.

Jalin Hyatt was the Biletnikoff Award Winner from this past season after catching 67 passes for 1,267 yards and 15 touchdowns.

This all came after grabbing just 41 passes for 502 yards and four touchdowns over his opening two years at Tennessee. 71.6% of Hyatt’s career yardage and 78.9% of his touchdown grabs came solely in 2022, the highest rates of this draft class.

Hyatt’s season was punctuated by torching Alabama for 207 yards and five touchdowns.

From Week 5 through Week 8, Hyatt caught multiple touchdowns in all four games with 11 total scores over that span.

Hyatt played 86.1% of his routes in the slot where he was given clean releases and oodles of cushion. He ran just three pass routes all of 2022 with two or fewer wideouts on the field and just 19 routes all year as an isolated receiver. Hyatt had just five contested catch targets all season on 91 targets (5.5%), the second-lowest rate in this class.

Hyatt gets comped to Will Fuller often because of his usage vertically, but Fuller ran a 4.32 forty compared to Hyatt’s 4.40 while coming in 10 pounds heavier.

While we would have preferred to see Hyatt come in a touch quicker for his size (6-foot-0 and 176 pounds) we do know what we have here out of the packaging. Hyatt can win as a vertical slot. The question is how much more is there to his game at the next level?

We also have to ask how much Hyatt’s explosion was aided by the injury to Cedric Tillman. Tillman played in just five full games last season. In those games, Hyatt topped 73 yards just once, although he did average 6.0 receptions per game in those weeks.

The Giants’ wide receiver room is ambiguous heading into the season, but they do have a clear need for a vertical playmaker. Hyatt is a wideout to target for a better second half of his rookie season.

Marvin Mims increased his yardage at Oklahoma in each of his three seasons there, capped by pulling in 54 receptions for 1,083 yards and six touchdowns this season. He averaged 19.5 yards per catch for his collegiate career, which ranks second in this class.

In 2022, Mims averaged 17.0 air yards per target (second in this class) while a class-high 36.7% of his targets were on throws 20 yards or further downfield.

Mims caught 20 touchdown passes over his three seasons with the Sooners. 19 of them were on throws 20 or more yards downfield.

As a byproduct of his role and leading the team in targets, Mims and his 2.66 yards per team attempt ranked fourth among all wideouts in this class.

Mims is likely to be behind all of Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick when Denver opens the season, but the Broncos do have outs on all of those wide receivers long-term. If any underperform, Mims could push for more opportunities as the season progresses.

Khalil Shakir flashed for 16.8 yards per catch with 6.2 yards after the catch per reception as a rookie, but only managed to run 171 pass routes and draw 27 total targets.

Coming out of college, 49.7% of Shakir’s targets resulted in a first down or touchdown, second in the 2022 draft class, so there is still some juice here if he is not completely roadblocked by the addition of Dalton Kincaid.

It was a smaller sample, but Shakir did post most yards per route run as a rookie (1.47) than George Pickens, Jahan Dotson, Romeo Doubs, Alec Pierce, and Skyy Moore, all of whom carry more cost and optimism among gamers this offseason.

If Shakir does not have a role in year two, could Deonte Harty?

Harty played just 24 offensive snaps in 2022 due to injury but signing a two-year deal worth up to $9.5 million does spark some intrigue here. Harty averaged 15.8 yards per catch in 2021 with the Saints.

In 20 games played a year ago, Marquez Valdes-Scantling reached 50 yards in a game just seven times and caught more than four passes in just two games. If it was not for the uniform he wears, we would be completely staying away, but Valdes-Scantling is still the betting favorite to play the most snaps among the Kansas City wideouts.

Tier 12 Fantasy Football WRs:

• Devante Parker
• Curtis Samuel
• Darius Slayton
• Darnell Mooney
• Parris Campbell
• Terrace Marshall
• Robert Woods
• Josh Palmer
• Allen Robinson
• Chase Claypool
• Marvin Jones

Closing things out, we are at the back leg of the position attempting to make as calculated dart throws as you can in the dying embers of a draft.

Curtis Samuel started last season hot.

Through seven weeks, he was 13th in targets (58) and ninth in receptions (39) among all wide receivers, turning those opportunities into 340 yards and two touchdowns.

Then Samuel evaporated from the offense when the team transitioned to Taylor Heinicke and Jahan Dotson started to flourish. Over the final 10 games of the season, Samuel only had 25 catches for 316 yards.

Allen Robinson turns 30 this summer and has been one of the most inefficient wideouts of the past two seasons.

In his only year with the Rams, Robinson averaged just 3.3 receptions for 33.9 yards per game. His 10.3 yards per catch were a career low after just 10.8 yards per catch in 2021.

Robinson just may not have enough juice anymore and be relegated to a contested catch clasher. He was targeted on 28.9% of his routes against man coverage (21st among wideouts) but was targeted on just 10.1% of his routes against zone coverage, which was the lowest rate in the NFL among all wideouts to run 200 or more pass routes last season.

DeVante Parker showed that he still does have some juice as a vertical outside receiver, averaging 17.4 yards per catch, the highest rate since his rookie season.

But Parker failed to stay healthy once again and failed to be a significant target earner. Parker missed four games due to injury, giving him just one complete season over his eight years in the league. He was targeted on just 14.9% of his routes, which ranked 102nd in the league at his position.

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