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Week 15 Prediction: Justice Hill More Than 28.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
While I prefer just rushing yards, I’ll pivot to rushing and receiving yards because just rushing is not available.
The foundation for this stems from two facts:
1. The Ravens are big favorites.
2. The Ravens are about to embark on a brutal run of three games in 10 days culminating with a Christmas game on Wednesday.
The Ravens should be up late in this game by multiple scores.
The Giants, led by Tommy DeVito and fielding a roster with many backups, are riding an 8-game losing streak with sole possession of the No. 1 overall draft pick.
They should not be in any condition to mount a late-game comeback to beat Baltimore.
As a result, the Ravens *should* choose to pivot to thinking about their game on a short week Saturday against the Steelers as well as the following Wednesday game against the Texans.
They can’t afford to recklessly spend Derrick Henry carries with so much late season work impending, particularly given they won’t have a bye before the playoffs.
When leading by 14+ points in the second half this season, the Ravens have given 80% of their rushes to Henry and 20% to Hill.
That ratio cannot happen in this game. Baltimore must be smarter than that with so many consecutive weeks of Henry to go if they’re able to reach their goal of the Super Bowl.
The Ravens will have 7 games over consecutive weeks without a bye before reaching the Super Bowl and getting a bye week.
And while they WILL have a mini-bye following their 3-in-10 run, they must get Henry through the 3-in-10 healthy.
In games the Ravens have led by seven or more points at halftime, Hill has recorded 22 rush yards on average and at least 15+ in each game.
He is also the Ravens' primary receiving back and has averaged 25 receiving yards per game.
The Giants are down Dexter Lawrence, and even with him were allowing 4.8 YPC to RBs (#27).
It’s a good matchup for RBs against the Giants, but it’s also a great combination of likely game state and upcoming rest issues which should propel Hill to the touches needed to exceed this total.
