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Week 16 Prediction: Jauan Jennings More Than 62.5 Receiving Yards
A lot of narratives are converging on the potential for Jennings to have a big game in Miami.
First, let’s look at weather regression.
In Week 15, he played in a rainstorm, and neither team’s passing game did anything.
In Week 13, he played in a snowstorm in Buffalo.
In those two bad weather games, he gained 31 and 56 yards.
But in his Week 14 game in good weather, he gained 90 yards.
The weather looks to be great in Miami.
Then, you have Brandon Allen making the start for Brock Purdy in Week 12. In that game, he gained just 40 yards.
The bottom line?
Since returning from a hip injury in Week 10, Jennings games:
Week 10: 93 yards
Week 11: 91 yards
Week 12: no Brock Purdy
Week 13: snowstorm in Buffalo
Week 14: 90 yards
Week 15: rainstorm
There are other factors at play here as well.
Last week’s game saw the 49ers try to force feed Deebo Samuel due to him complaining about targets. I don’t think that will happen this week.
Even despite that, Jennings led the 49ers in targets because Deebo was dropping everything.
Additionally, the 49ers are now without all their RBs. Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason, and Elijah Mitchell are all out, and it looks like the 49ers will be without Isaac Guerendo as well.
That leaves Patrick Taylor as the RB1 with Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Israel Abanikanda serving as his backups.
I can envision Kyle Shanahan passing the ball even more in this spot.
And yet this prop is lined lower than it was last week in a rainstorm and lower than it was the week prior in Chicago when he hit 90 receiving yards.