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Week 16 Prediction: Russell Wilson Less Than 207.5 Passing Yards
Without George Pickens, Russell Wilson has thrown for 158 and 128 yards.
With Pickens on the field, Wilson is averaging 8.8 yards per attempt.
Without Pickens on the field, Wilson is averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt.
The last time these two teams met, Wilson averaged just 5.7 YPA despite Pickens playing and totaled 205 yards at home.
In Wilson’s last 6 games, he’s fallen short of 207.5 passing yards four of six times.
The only times he went over were against the horrible pass defense of the Bengals and the Browns in the snow.
Baltimore's pass defense has done an excellent job of reducing their explosive gain rate.
From Weeks 1-9, they allowed a 20+ yard gain on at least 11% of passes in eight of nine games and on at least 8% in 100% of games.
But since Week 10, they haven’t allowed anything more than 7% in any game, not even to Joe Burrow’s Bengals. The only reason Burrow went over his yardage total is because he threw the ball an incredible 56 times.
Wilson has thrown the ball more than 30 times just twice, and those were 36 attempt and 38 attempt games, nearly 20 fewer than Burrow.
In their last four games, the Ravens pass defense has held Wilson to 205 yards, Jalen Hurts to only 118 yards, and the Giants QBs to 191 yards.
Only Justin Herbert exceeded this total, narrowly, by throwing for 218 yards.
The current forecast in Baltimore shows winds as a manageable 9-11 mph, but the gusts are 27-33 mph during the game, which only will help this pick.
