Week 8 NFL Sunday Player Matchups

In advance of Sunday’s games, I wanted to isolate specific advantageous matchups that could be interesting from a fantasy and prop perspective.

Running Backs:

Darrell Henderson

Most people would assume that Todd Gurley is the one with the great matchup against this Cincinnati defense, and that will probably be true. I think for the value (props, DFS, etc) this is a perfect spot for Henderson.
He ranks sixth in success rate on his 18 carries at 56% and his 18% DVOA is far superior to Gurley’s at 2.4%
The Bengals are 28th in DVOA run defense, 27th in open field rank and have allowed the second-highest rate of explosive runs in the NFL. In addition, the Bengals have allowed the second-highest target share to RBs and rank 31st in success rate allowed and 30th in yards per attempt allowed to RBs in the passing game.
Henderson was known for his explosive runs at Memphis averaging 8.9 yards per carry in both of his final two seasons.
Henderson has only seen carries against the Falcons and Niners, two of the top 12 run defenses in the NFL. He did receive 11 carries last week against Atlanta in a blowout and I think Henderson has a good chance to explode onto the scene on Sunday in London.

Matt Breida

Last week in a mud bowl, you can essentially throw away what happened in the Niners/Redskins game.
If you eliminate last week, Breida ranks fifth in explosive run rate at 15%.
The Panthers defense has allowed the third-highest percentage of explosive runs in the NFL and ranks 29th in open field run defense.

David Montgomery

You might be surprised to be seeing a Chicago Bears RB on this list, but I think this might finally be the week he breaks out.
It has been talked about all week, but the Bears have run the ball the second-lowest percentage of the time in one-score game situations. They clearly are relying on the pass way too much.
I am going to go out on the limb and say that Matt Nagy will do his best to get Montgomery going more often early. He has received only 13 carries in the last two games combined.
He has a favorable matchup against a Chargers run defense that ranks 24th in DVOA. The Chargers have allowed an average of 137 rush yards and 4.2 ypc to opponents who rank 15th, 23rd, and 24th in DVOA run offense. LA has struggled with injuries to the DL so if Melvin Ingram and Brandon Mebane are out again, Montgomery should have a solid game on the ground.

Jonnu Smith

This is really dependent on the health of Delanie Walker. Smith received 83% of the offensive snaps last week and without Walker, he should continue to get such a large share.
Tampa has allowed the fifth-highest target share allowed to TEs and 24th in yards per attempt allowed.
Smith probably won’t catch a ton of passes but when he does, he usually makes the most out of them with big plays.

Austin Hooper

Hooper has been a breakout star this year, ranking as the fourth-best TE by DVOA
Obviously, his production has been with Matt Ryan at QB, who most likely won’t be playing Sunday.
So, the question is how much, if at all, his production will change with Matt Schaub under the center. Well, it’s a tiny sample size but in his one drive last Sunday against the Rams, Schaub targeted Hooper three times out of five passes in that one drive alone. Hooper capped the drive off with a 10-yard TD reception.
I am totally projecting here but I imagine a 38-year-old QB with a weak arm would target shorter throws to a TE like Hooper more than deeper throws to WRs.
This is a good matchup for Hooper as Seattle has allowed the fifth-highest target share to TEs and are 21stt in yards per attempt allowed. Last week, Mark Andrews was continually open, and he continually dropped passes. The middle of the field is wide open against this Seattle defense.

DeAndre Hopkins

Well this is obvious, duh
But this specific matchup is ideal for Hopkins, who has a good but not great season. His 72.6 receiving yards per game is the second-lowest level of his career since his rookie season.
The Raiders are 30th in DVOA against No. 1 WRs this year and 31st in yards per attempt allowed to WRs overall.
Oakland has allowed these gaudy figures against a modest schedule of offenses. They have allowed 8.6 yards per attempt vs a schedule of offenses that average 7.1 yards per attempt. This 19% premium ranks 30th in the NFL.
Against the only real QBs that Oakland has faced — Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, and Kirk Cousins, Oakland has allowed an astonishing 73% completion, 10.9 ypa, 10 TDs, and 0 INT.

Kenny Golladay

The Giants have struggled all season defending the pass, ranking 27th in DVOA against the pass.
They have been torched defending the deep ball, ranking 28th in DVOA deep passing and have allowed the third-highest percentage of explosive pass plays in the NFL.
Golladay is tied with Marvin Jones with 16 deep targets and Matt Stafford has attempted the second-most deep passes in the NFL.
The Giants have no pass rush and are 30th according to PFF. Stafford has the fourth-highest accuracy percentage with a clean pocket so he will have all day to pick this secondary apart.

D.K. Metcalf

I liked Metcalf as well last week and he topped his receiving prop with 4 receptions for 53 yards. He was targeted a season-high 9 times.
I suspect much of the same on Sunday against a Falcons secondary that is awful. They are 31st in DVOA against the pass, have allowed the fifth-highest percentage of explosive pass plays, and are 26th in DVOA deep passing defense.
Russell Wilson has attempted the third-highest percentage of deep passes and is fourth in accuracy percentage. Metcalf has received 12 deep targets out of a total of 40 targets on the season. Expect lots of deep passes to Metcalf on Sunday.