• Spread: Lions -9.5
  • Total: O/U 55.5
  • Defense Advantage: The Lions finished No. 8 in points per drive allowed (1.86), while the Commanders (2.25) are No. 23.
  • Offensive Mismatch: Washington’s defense is vulnerable to big plays down the field, and Detroit wideout Jameson Williams averaged 17.3 yards per catch on his way to 1,001 yards this season.
  • Bet365 bonus code SFA365: Get up to $1,000 in bonus bets if your first bet loses.
  • Risk Factors: The Commanders were the only road team to win last week and haven’t lost a game by more than one possession since Week 1.

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Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders Best Bet Prediction

The Detroit Lions are the No. 1 seed for the first time ever, and the Washington Commanders have had their best season since 1991, when they last won the Super Bowl. There’s a lot of excitement for this fresh matchup, but the best bet that has our Sharp Focus is on the Commanders covering as a 9.5-point underdog at Bet365.

Let’s hope it’s closer than when they met in the 1991 NFC Championship Game, a 41-10 rout by Washington.

Can Jayden Daniels Pull This Off?

Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has played like an MVP veteran for much of this season. It wouldn't be shocking if he pulled off an upset in Detroit:

  • Daniels is the first rookie quarterback since Sammy Baugh in 1937 to win a road playoff game by throwing for over 200 yards with multiple touchdowns.
  • Daniels has tied the NFL record with five fourth-quarter comeback wins as a rookie.
  • The 2024 Commanders can become the third team in NFL history (1983 Raiders, 2017 Patriots) to score at least 18 points in 19 consecutive games in a single season.
  • Detroit (-9.5) has won just 1-of-9 games by double digits when allowing at least 20 points this season.

Does Detroit Have a Glaring Weakness?

The Lions (15-2) led the NFL with a +222 scoring differential, which ranks 11th since 1970. They have a great coaching staff and elite players on both sides of the ball, but some concerns could lead to their postseason downfall:

  • Jared Goff could always turn the ball over a gross number of times, like his five-interception game in Houston, which a better team would take advantage of.
  • The Lions have placed over a dozen defensive starters on injured reserve and are still without star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson.
  • A risky fourth-down decision by Dan Campbell could always backfire in a big spot this postseason.

Offensive Edge: Detroit

The Lions should have the offensive edge at home with running back David Montgomery returning to the backfield. But keep in mind these numbers for why the under 55.5 might hit if these teams go on long drives filled with fourth-down decisions:

  • The 2024 Lions and Commanders are the only two teams in NFL history to have three games in a season where they never punted or turned the ball over via interception or fumble.
  • The Commanders are 20-of-23 (87.0%) on fourth downs, the best by any offense in the last 40 years (min. 15 attempts).
  • Detroit’s defense is No. 2 on fourth down, allowing 12-of-29 conversions (41.4%).
  • Daniels is just the second rookie quarterback to win a road playoff game where his team allowed more than 14 points.

Detroit vs. Washington in the NFL Divisional Round odds by bet365.

Exclusive Lions vs. Commanders Betting Offer with the Bet365 Bonus Code: SFA365

New users have an exciting offer during the NFL Divisional Round: You can use the Bet365 bonus code SFA365 to get up to $1,000 in bonus bets if your first bet loses.

$1,000 First Bet Safety Net

  • Minimum deposit: $10
  • Bet $10 on Lions vs. Commanders with odds of -500 or greater
  • Can bet on player props (Jameson Williams receiving yards) or game props like the first-half total
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  • Bonus bets will expire 7 days after they are added to your account

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    • Bet on Terry McLaurin to score another touchdown for Washington
    • Trust the Commanders to cover the spread
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Bet on the Lions Vs. Commanders

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