The Kansas City Chiefs face off against the Houston Texans in a crucial NFL Divisional Round matchup, with Kansas City favored by 8.5 points. The Chiefs are coming off a long 24-day break, which raises questions about potential rust. Meanwhile, the Texans' defense, led by a strong pass rush and takeaways, will need to step up to keep the game close. Bet365 offers new customers $150 in bonus bets when they bet $5 on the game. Use the Bet365 bonus code SFA365 to claim the offer and get in on the action.

 

  • Spread: Chiefs -8.5
  • Total: O/U 41.5
  • Defense Advantage: The Texans rank No. 2 in pressure rate and No. 5 in EPA/pass play this season.
  • Offensive Mismatch: DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t played in a postseason game since 2019 when he lost to the Chiefs with the Texans. Look for the veteran to step up in his Kansas City playoff debut and exploit the holes in Houston’s secondary.
  • Bet365 bonus code SFA365: Bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets.
  • Risk Factors: It will be 24 days between games since the Chiefs’ starters last played on Christmas, so rust could be an issue early.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans Best Bet Prediction

The Chiefs’ pursuit of a three-peat continues with a tough matchup against the Texans this Saturday afternoon in the NFL divisional round. The Chiefs are an 8.5-point favorite at Bet365 after defeating the Texans 27-19 a month ago. But the Texans played fantastic defense, including four interceptions from Justin Herbert last week.

If the Chiefs come out rusty with their historic amount of rest for this game, that could make for a valuable betting opportunity with the first-half spread given a line like Texans +4.5.

Will the Chiefs Be Negatively Affected by Time Off?

No team has ever gone 24 days between playing its starters and their first playoff game, but the Chiefs are equipped to handle it with Patrick Mahomes and a coach like Andy Reid. However, there are reasons for concern that this team is still unsorted at key positions:

  • If veteran D.J. Humphries gets the start at left tackle, he only has 60 snaps in one game of experience with Mahomes, and that game did not go well.
  • Hollywood Brown made his season debut in Week 16, but he’s only played in two games with the starters and this is his first playoff game with the Chiefs.
  • Xavier Worthy has become the go-to target at wideout, but he is a mistake-prone rookie who will be playing in his first playoff game.
  • Chiefs could get corner Jaylen Watson back, but he hasn’t played any snaps since October 20 due to injury and could be rusty.

Houston Must Get Pressure and Takeaways

Given the fact that Tank Dell injured his knee in the last meeting, the Texans are down to Nico Collins as their last major receiving threat for C.J. Stroud to throw to. That’s why the Texans are going to need takeaways to flip field position and give themselves a better shot of winning:

  • Houston forced Justin Herbert into four interceptions last week after he threw three all season.
  • The Texans have also forced Jared Goff into throwing five picks and Josh Allen to complete 9-of-30 passes in a game.
  • Houston is No. 2 in the NFL with 19 interceptions.
  • The Chiefs have not turned the ball over in seven consecutive games, which ties the NFL record set by the 2010 Patriots.

Offensive Edge: Kansas City

The Chiefs are usually well prepared after a bye week under Reid. Mahomes is also 6-0 in divisional round games.

  • Even though regression suggests the Chiefs will turn the ball over at least once in this game, the Texans are just 3-3 when forcing at least three turnovers this season.
  • The Chiefs rank No. 2 on third down and average the most plays per drive.
  • Patrick Mahomes had his fastest time to throw (2.34 seconds) this season in Week 16 against Houston.
  • Travis Kelce has exceeded 70 receiving yards in his last 13 playoff games.

Bet365 Bonus Code

Exclusive Chiefs vs. Texans Betting Offer with the Bet365 Bonus Code: SFA365

New customers should check out an offer during the NFL playoffs using Bet365 bonus code SFA365 to receive $150 in bonus bets and 50 bonus spins pending your location.

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  • Bet $5 on Chiefs vs. Texans with odds of -500 or greater
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  5. Place a $5 bet on some of the markets we covered in our Chiefs vs. Texans preview:
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    • Consider the first half under if the Chiefs are rusty
  6. After your bet settles, $150 in bonus bets will be available to bet on other games

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