It’s that time of year to start looking at player props bets for the upcoming 2021 NFL season. In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some Over and Under Future bets worth considering at each position group.
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Why You Should Bet the UNDER on Ryan Tannehill’s Passing Yards Prop Bet
- Possible downgrade at offensive coordinator due to loss of Arthur Smith
- More difficult schedule
In 2020, Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill averaged 238.7 yards per game, putting him on pace for 4,058 over a 17-game season. However, he greatly benefitted from the heavy play-action game plan of former offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.
With Smith now the Atlanta Falcons head coach, it may be difficult for Tannehill to hit the over on these numbers:
- 4175.5 passing yards on BetMGM
- 4150.5 passing yards on FanDuel
- 4050.5 passing yards on DraftKings
In 2020, Tannehill averaged 9.5 yards per attempt off play action, compared to 7.1 without 一 a 33.4% difference, the fifth-highest in the league. With Tennessee using play-action 34% of the time, the fourth-highest rate, this greatly affected Tannehill’s output.
Hopefully new offensive coordinator Todd Downing maintains consistent play-action usage, but his track record is worrisome. In 2017, as the Raiders offensive coordinator, Downing used play-action on 13% of dropbacks, the third-lowest rate in the NFL.
Tennessee is also likely to face a more difficult defensive schedule in 2021. A season ago, Tannehill faced the 22nd-ranked schedule in pass efficiency defense, but this year’s slate is projected to be the 10th most difficult.
